Ahead of the MLB trade deadline, here’s where the Cubs stand

MILWAUKEE — The boos still ring out whenever manager Craig Counsell’s name is announced during pregame introductions at American Family Field. The Milwaukee Brewers remain in first place in the National League Central, a baseball industry gold standard for pitching development and small-market efficiency. Once again, the Chicago Cubs are playing catch-up.

Counsell, though, isn’t fixated on the gap in the division, which the Cubs reduced to 5 1/2 games with Sunday’s 4-3 victory in 10 innings. The Cubs manager is occupied with a pitching staff in tatters.

“I’m thinking about our team right now,” Counsell said. “We’ve just gone through this period of pitcher loss. We got to get through this phase. That’s No. 1. That’s really the focus of everything for me right now. Let’s get our team through this phase and come out the other side with some semblance of order in how we’re going to run it the rest of the year.”

That sense of organization is one reason why Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer secretly negotiated a five-year, $40 million contract with Counsell after the 2023 season and then fired David Ross. Believe it when Counsell, a Wisconsin resident and the former Brewers manager, says his old team is not in his head.

Just look at the 12 pitchers on Chicago’s injured list, a group that on paper mostly resembles what the club would want in a 13-man staff for a playoff series:

The Cubs didn’t have enough pitching to beat the Brewers in a five-game series last October, much less conquer two additional playoff rounds. But winning two of three games over the weekend — in front of three sellout crowds, and under these circumstances — showed resiliency and determination.

Beginning Aug. 31, the Cubs and Brewers are scheduled to play seven times over 10 days, with four of those games at Wrigley Field. Reinforcements are expected before then, both through improved health and external additions, but first, the Cubs have to weather this stretch before the All-Star break.

Record: 46-38

Record this time last season: 49-35

Standing: 2nd in NL Central

Playoff odds: 66.6% (FanGraphs), 70.6% (Baseball Reference)

If the season ended today: In a wild-card spot

Biggest series between now and the deadline: A four-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals will begin July 27 at Busch Stadium, where these two historic rivals could be trying to gain traction in the division race and create separation in the wild-card standings. The Cardinals are surprisingly competitive in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. For the Cubs, this season will be a failure if they don’t make the playoffs. Given the timing of this series, a good showing, a poor performance or a costly injury could influence each organization’s deadline plans.

Current needs: Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Last week’s desperation deal for David Peterson, a one-time All-Star with the New York Mets, was only the start of a necessary overhaul. The Cubs have already used 12 different starters, including openers. With 22 quality starts through 84 games, the club ranks near the bottom of the majors in that category, putting more pressure on a fragile bullpen. Team officials acknowledge the organization’s pitching depth is almost completely gone.

History says: Hoyer will not be indecisive or inactive. “There was no reason to go halfway,” Chicago’s team president said after executing a massive sell-off at the 2021 trade deadline that unloaded Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Báez for a group of prospects that included Pete Crow-Armstrong. That year, Hoyer’s hand was forced by an 11-game losing streak.

Reacting to a different moment, Hoyer also responded when the scuffling Cubs suddenly produced an eight-game winning streak in July 2023. Not only did Hoyer not trade Cody Bellinger at that time, he went out and acquired Jeimer Candelario, who might have been the best hitter moved during that transaction cycle.

While last year’s trade deadline was underwhelming — relative to expectations for a team that had spent 100-plus days in first place and the hopes that Hoyer would land a front line starter — the Cubs still added Andrew Kittredge, Michael Soroka, Taylor Rogers and Willi Castro for their playoff run.

What will determine what they do: A cascade of pitching injuries has already exposed the roster’s biggest weakness. Milwaukee’s prolific start has significantly reduced the likelihood of a first-round bye in the playoffs, and Hoyer believes those odds are a major factor in how aggressive a front office should be at the trade deadline.

The Cubs will supplement their pitching staff, but they have to get healthy, and they need core players such as Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki to perform up to expectations. This roster was largely built around hitters who were drafted in the first round and rewarded with nine-figure contracts.

At the moment, however, Crow-Armstrong looks like he could be the club’s only representative at the All-Star Game. Bregman, in particular, has struggled in the first season of a five-year, $175 million contract, hitting .163 with runners in scoring position and failing to generate any kind of consistent power.

What should they do: Trade from the organization’s surplus of minor-league hitters to add pitching for this October as well as future years. Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Taillon and Peterson are all eligible to become free agents after this season. Steele hasn’t pitched in a game since April 7, 2025. Brown, Cabrera and Horton have not yet completed a full major league season.

The farm system features only one notable pitching prospect, Jaxon Wiggins, who’s on a minor-league rehab assignment and not on the near-term radar.

Given the groupthink across front offices, the reliance on projection models to make decisions and the threat of a lockout this offseason, there are only so many times when teams are seriously willing to make deals. The Cubs must take advantage of this opportunity to get better now and prepare for an uncertain future.

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