Breaking down the U.S. soccer team’s path to the World Cup final

Posted June 28, 2026 5:16 pm

By Paul Tenorio and Henry Bushnell

The United States’ path through the 2026 World Cup knockout rounds came into focus on Friday when potential opponents in the round of 16 and quarterfinals locked up Groups G and H, respectively.

The U.S. already knows that it will play Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32 on July 1 in Santa Clara, Calif. (8 p.m. ET, Fox), and that, for the next several days, will be its focus.

“We’re not looking past Bosnia,” U.S. captain Tim Ream said Thursday. “We’re not looking past the round of 32.”

But after Friday, fans can. The U.S. learned that the two other first-place finishers in its quadrant of the knockout bracket will be Belgium and Spain.

Those two teams, therefore, would arguably be the most likely U.S. opponents in the round of 16 at Lumen Field in Seattle on July 6; and in a quarterfinal on July 10 at SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles.

There are, however, other contenders. On Saturday, Portugal and Croatia also joined the quadrant. And Senegal became a possibility in the round of 16.

Here’s a round-by-round look at the possibilities.

Last 16

The winner of the U.S.-Bosnia match will play five days later against either Belgium or Senegal.

Belgium came from behind to top Group G with a 5-1 win over New Zealand, while Egypt failed to beat Iran in a simultaneous game and slipped down to the runner-up spot.

Senegal was then confirmed as Belgium’s opponent on Saturday when South Korea slipped out of the top eight third-place teams.

Either team would probably be an underdog against the U.S. on home soil. Although the Americans lost to Belgium 5-2 in March, Belgium has looked blunt at this World Cup, especially with Jeremy Doku still recovering from an illness. And the U.S. blitzed Senegal in a pre-tournament friendly, winning 3-2 and looking far superior.

This, including the Bosnia matchup, is just about the kindest path to the quarterfinals that the Americans could have hoped for.

Quarterfinal

Come the quarterfinals, though, it will get much tougher.

Spain, as expected, beat Uruguay on Friday to win Group H. The defending European champions will play Austria, who secured second place in Group J amid late drama on Saturday night, in their first knockout match.

Their round-of-16 opponent would then be either Portugal or Croatia. Portugal slumped to second-place in Group K after drawing both DR Congo and Colombia. Croatia, on the other hand, enters the knockouts with some momentum after beating Ghana with a late goal Saturday in Philadelphia.

Any of those teams, therefore, could meet the U.S. in the July 6 quarterfinal at SoFi — if the Americans get there, of course. Spain or Portugal would be by far the strongest U.S. opponent yet. The Americans lost to Portugal 2-0 back in March.

Semifinal

Spelling out all semifinal possibilities is a fruitless endeavor, but we at least now know the top contenders in each quadrant of the bracket.

The U.S. and Spain are in the bottom left. In the upper left, on the semifinal collision course, are Germany, France, Canada, the Netherlands and Morocco. France, which bulldozed its way through Group I, is currently the betting favorite to win the tournament.

This semifinal would be at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on July 14.

The World Cup final is July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

Final

This is it. The impossible dream. Mauricio Pochettino has delivered the U.S. to the promised land.

It’s a final now for the group winners and at this point, does it matter who the opponent is? The U.S. is in heaven, enjoying the spoils that come with the most improbable run in the tournament’s history. The talk now is about how such success will impact the growth of the sport in the country, and whether the U.S. lifts the trophy or not, it would be guaranteed that this team would be remembered as the greatest American men’s team of all time.