USMNT vs. Turkey World Cup mega-preview: Predictions, odds, must-reads and more

Posted June 25, 2026 11:01 am

By Dean Jones and Tom Bogert

The United States faces a pleasantly unexpected quandary against Turkey: A rare inconsequential World Cup group finale.

No matter what happens in the match on Thursday, the U.S. will finish top of the group thanks to wins over Paraguay and Australia to open the tournament.

The USMNT still has the motivation of a first nine-point group showing and won’t want to lose momentum. All involved with the team continue to speak about how important it is to close the group stage with another strong performance, but regardless, the U.S. will head to Santa Clara (to almost certainly face Bosnia and Herzegovina) for the round of 32.

The biggest questions about the game hover over who Mauricio Pochettino will put in the starting XI and how much rotation there will be. Star attacker Christian Pulisic said he’s available to play after missing the match against Australia with a calf injury. How many minutes he plays, if any, remains to be seen.

As for Turkey, much has changed since earning qualification. Once viewed as the United States’ toughest group-stage opponent and a potential contender to top the group, the Turks are now heading home, regardless of the result against the U.S.

The mood surrounding the team has shifted dramatically. After back-to-back defeats, culminating in a 1-0 loss to Paraguay on Friday, Vincenzo Montella’s side has come under fierce criticism back home. They could leave the tournament having failed to score a single goal.

What you need to know about the matchup

Group D: United States (FIFA ranking 14) vs Turkey (FIFA ranking 32)

Venue: Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, Calif.

Date: Thursday, June 25

Kick off: 9 p.m.

U.S. pathway: Qualified automatically as a host nation. Drawn from Pot 1.

Turkey pathway: Turkey qualified for the World Cup through UEFA’s playoff route. Drawn from Pot 4.

Staff predictions

Paul Tenorio: U.S. 2, Turkey 2 — Turkey is playing for the pride of their badge. Listening to Turkey manager Montella on Wednesday, it’s a group that feels under fire and with something to prove. And against a rotated U.S. squad, they will find the goals that have been the missing piece of their World Cup. The U.S., though, will get a result and go into the knockout phase unbeaten.

Henry Bushnell: U.S. 2, Turkey 2 — The U.S., with a rotated lineup, will play with energy and intensity. And even if the environment isn’t what it was last week, remember, this will still be a raucous crowd by typical U.S. standards. It will push the players, but Turkey will also be unshackled from pressure, and we’ll get an entertaining, back-and-forth game that ends level.

Tom Bogert: U.S. 2, Turkey 0 — Turkey may play with pride and they may have a rotated team looking to prove why they should have gotten more minutes … but the team has been vastly overrated heading into the tournament. The USMNT’s rotated team will have plenty of intensity and motivation, too.

Asli Petit: U.S. 1, Turkey 2 — If Montella abandons the formula that has already failed twice and turns to the lineup many have been calling for, Turkey could have enough talent to beat a heavily rotated American team. It would not change the standings or erase the disappointment of an early exit, but it would at least allow Turkey to leave the World Cup with a victory, even if it comes too late to matter.

Odds

The Americans have nothing significant to play for but are still the favorites at just under even money to win.

It’s difficult to test the motivation of either team when both have little to gain, although perhaps Turkey would like to return home with something and a win or draw could salvage some pride. A Turkey win is around +250 (5-to-2) while a draw is +300 (3-to-1).

That means the implied chance of a U.S. win is about 50% while a draw and a Turkey win split the remaining probability mostly evenly.

Keep in mind, American bettors tend to bet on America, of course, but the sportsbooks won’t move their lines too far to compensate for that. The payout for an American win is likely deflated a touch from what their internal numbers would show to be fair value.

If U.S. beats Turkey it will be because …

Quality in rotation matched with intensity from players getting the chance at extended minutes.

Even if the U.S. rotated all 11 starters from the win over Australia, they could put out a strong lineup. In particular, Tim Weah and Gio Reyna will be chomping at the bit for their first starts. Ditto for Brenden Aaronson and Alejandro Zendejas for their first minutes at this World Cup. Same goes for forwards Ricardo Pepi (one start and a substitute appearance) and Haji Wright (a stoppage-time cameo against Australia).

Any combination of that group will be strong enough to cause Turkey problems. The defensive unit may have some continuity, starting with goalkeeper Matt Freese.

The team can play their same system and principles and not lose too many steps, even with a totally changed team. One would imagine the starters who are not at risk of yellow card suspensions will play a role, be it from the beginning or off the bench, too.

Turkey has taken 62 shots and scored no goals. Even if the U.S. cedes possession for the first time at this World Cup, they will be comfortable defending and have more space to attack.

If U.S. draws it will be because …

Too many changes to the team lead to a disjointed performance, even with intensity being high from the players on the field. Perhaps Turkey’s finishing gets a bit better in this match and there’s a draw with goals.

Turkey has some top individual talent. It’s why they were viewed as a strong threat to win the group itself. Less pressure could lead to free-flowing performances from Arda Guler and Kenan Yıldız.

If U.S. loses it will be because …

Continuity can be lost with so many changes to the team, especially when the lack of jeopardy takes away that extra edge a team needs to carry them over the top.

Maybe this is the best version of Turkey to see at the World Cup, with absolutely no pressure, given they are already heading home in fourth place no matter what happens.

Changes in defense could open more gaps for Turkey than they found against Australia or Paraguay. Pressing high also demands complete coordination between all players.

Key injuries

Pulisic trained with teammates again on Wednesday, one day before the match. The only player absent from Wednesday’s session was midfielder Cristian Roldan, who suffered a muscle strain in a Saturday training session. Roldan would have been a candidate to start this one, but his status appears questionable due to the injury.

Avoiding unnecessary suspensions is also an important aspect of this game. The U.S. should and will likely rest players on a yellow card — Tyler Adams, Chris Richards, Folarin Balogun and Antonee Robinson risk suspension for the round of 32 if they were booked against Turkey.

Predicted lineups

United States (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, McKenzie, Trusty; Weah, Berhalter, Reyna, Arfsten; Aaronson, Zendejas; Pepi

Turkey (4-2-3-1): Ugurcan Çakır; Zeki Çelik, Abdülkerim Bardakcı, Ozan Kabak, Ferdi Kadioglu; İsmail Yüksek, Orkun Kökçü; Barış Alper Yılmaz, Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız; Can Uzun

Match referee

The referee will be Mustapha Ghorbal, a 40-year-old Algerian who will be assisted by compatriots Mokrane Gourari and Abbes Akram Zerhouni, with Omar Al-Ali of the United Arab Emirates serving as fourth official and Mohamed Al-Hammadi as reserve assistant referee.

Ghorbal is one of eight African officials selected for the tournament in North America and is appearing at his second World Cup. Born in Oran, Algeria, he has established himself as one of Africa’s top referees, having worked four Africa Cup of Nations tournaments, two CAF Champions League finals and two matches at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. He took charge of Scotland’s opening game against Haiti.

Schedule and TV information

USMNT vs. Turkey in Los Angeles: June 25, 9 p.m. on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)

Next U.S. match

Round of 32 game in Santa Clara, Calif. (Opposition TBC; almost certainly Bosnia and Herzegovina): July 1, 9 p.m on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)

Essential reading

A handful of must-reads from The Athletic staff.

USMNT’s intersection with ‘Country Roads’: How the song became a World Cup anthem

As players celebrated on the pitch at Lumen Field, Seattle, last time out, supporters swayed from side to side in the stands, singing “Take Me Home, Country Roads.” The song has become one of the defining sounds of the tournament, evolving into an unofficial World Cup anthem and a symbol of the connection between fans and players.

Mark McKenzie’s prayer circle and the USMNT’s defining postgame image

The center back has yet to play a minute at this World Cup, but he’s at the heart of the team’s most powerful moments.

The dogs helping the USMNT cope with World Cup pressures

There’s nothing like a little puppy play time to help athletes wade through a massive tournament.

How Pochettino’s past choices provide clues to his likely approach for USMNT vs. Turkey

It would not be a surprise to see Pochettino field new faces for this game. The U.S. coach’s entire ethos since taking the job has been built around the idea that no one player in the pool is better or more worthy than any other.

NYCFC interested in a Christian Pulisic deal, told by Milan he is not for sale

Pulisic is a star of the USMNT — but his club career is suddenly in focus. NYCFC is interested in a move, but his club insist he is not for sale, sources briefed on the situation tell The Athletic.

USMNT players in the summer shop window

It’s not just Pulisic who is catching the eye of clubs around the globe this transfer window.

How Turkey’s World Cup hopes fell apart — and rendered USMNT clash a dead rubber

When coach Montella’s squad departed for North America, the sendoff was a national event of serious significance. After consecutive losses, Turkey’s squad heads to LA already eliminated from the tournament.