Does deep bag beat slugger success? Trying to explain Cubs’ fast start
There was a time when the Cubs tried to load up on power hitters.
Of course, we're referring to last season, when they gave up 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith for a one-year rental of Kyle Tucker.
This isn't about Tucker, really, but an illustration of the Cubs' differing paths to offensive success. Last year, they completely dominated the MLB leaderboard in the first half of the season.
The peak was probably July 7, 2025, when four of the top 22 qualified hitters in OPS were Cubs. Since there are 30 teams in MLB, an average performance would be four hitters in the top 120.
Lower the plate-appearance threshold a bit so Carson Kelly could qualify, and the Cubs had five of the top 25 hitters in baseball last July 7. Michael Busch was sixth, Tucker 12th, Seiya Suzuki 15th, Kelly 17th and Pete Crow-Armstrong 25th.
This is how you win in modern baseball, one might surmise. Slug matters.
In contrast, this season, if you lower the plate appearances needed to qualify, Suzuki would rank ninth in OPS. Next up from the Cubs would be Moises Ballesteros at 38th, Ian Happ 39th and Kelly 72nd.
The individual success is nowhere near where it was last season, yet the Cubs had scored the most runs in MLB heading into Saturday's action, not to mention the twin 10-game winning streaks and 27-12 record.
How does that make sense? Manager Craig Counsell made a golf comparison, suggesting the Cubs had plenty of clubs in the bag. Crow-Armstrong described the offense as “inevitable.”
Somehow, the Cubs have found an elite “sum greater than the parts” strategy; a lineup deep enough where a rally can happen in any inning, and they can survive a few key players landing in slumps.
Last year when Tucker got off to a nice start with the Cubs, do you know who was even hotter? Alex Bregman in his early days with the Red Sox. Eventually, both players had injuries and limped to the finish in '25.
Bregman is not off to a fast start in the North Side, he's been the Cubs worst-hitting regular. When he signed with the Cubs, a dominant theme of the welcoming news conference was how Bregman is a great teammate, someone dedicated to making everyone in the clubhouse better. Maybe some of that explains the Cubs' early success. Hard to tell.
The Cubs lead MLB in walks and on-base percentage, which is helpful. They rank just 14th in batting average with runners in scoring position at .253.
The latest win streak was mostly about hitting a magical stretch of timely hitting. In a span of three days this week, with the Cubs trailing in the bottom of the ninth, Crow-Armstrong hit a triple to set up the tying run, then dropped a 2-run tying home run into the bleachers. Those types of dramatic hits are not going to happen often.
If there was a 10th Man Award celebrating supersubs, like there is in the NBA, Michael Conforto would be the front-runner. He’s saved a few wins already and no one expected that when the season began.
Of course, fortunes can change suddenly in baseball. The Cubs' second 10-game win streak ended Saturday in Texas. This time the offense created plenty of traffic against Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter but left seven runners on base in the first three innings.
A win Saturday would have given the Cubs a 28-12 record and put them in a tie for the seventh-best 40-game start of the 2000s.
The fastest start this century was by the 2023 Rays, which went 30-10. The 2016 Cubs were one of five teams to start 29-11.
The '16 Cubs won the World Series. The '23 Rays were swept in the wild-card series by Texas.
The early-season Cubs offense has been interesting to analyze, but all it really means is they're off to a good start.