O’Donnell: With few certainties, Saturday’s Kentucky Derby is looking for a star
WHETHER IT'S THE 152ND RUNNING OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY or the lowest maiden claiming race at Southwest suburban Hawthorne Race Course, mystery fuels thoroughbred racing.
No mystery, no game.
That's why despite the laborious study methods of tens of millions of handicappers focused on Saturday's $5 million mane event at Churchill Downs, there's only one certainty:
Someone will win.
A FULL FIELD OF 20 IS EXPECTED for the Run for the Roses (Post time: 5:57 p.m.; NBC legacy network coverage featuring Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss begins at 1:30 p.m. First race at CD is scheduled to go at 10 a.m.).
That sort of traffic jam in a contemporary American horse race is extraordinary, which is yet another reason there's such a unique aura surrounding the event.
(At the complete opposite end of the modern racing spectrum, struggling Hawthorne was forced to cancel its modest seven-race Thursday card because of a lack of entries. Than means the death knell for live racing in the Chicago area continues to grow louder.)
THE FACT THAT CHURCHILL DOWNS INC. is a prime beneficiary of much Derby profit and pageantry should draw mixed emotions around the 326 acres once doing business as Arlington Park.
When the merger of CDI and Dick Duchossois' Arlington was announced during the winter of 1999-2000, few suspected that business deal would begin the two-decade droop to the demolition of AP.
But it did and now the specter of one of the most vibrant annual weekends on the Chicago sports calendar — the opening of Arlington on the first Friday in May followed by the Kentucky Derby one afternoon later — is merely part of a faded gallery.
SATURDAY'S DERBY CAN QUITE RIGHTLY be called a wide-open affair.
The rose-driven Class of '26 isn't necessarily pedestrian. But no 3-year-old has emerged to stir imaginations or make betting plungers prepare to dive into the deep end of the mutuel win pool.
Following the post draw last Saturday, Todd Pletcher's Renegade was installed as a tepid 4-1 favorite.
But the colt also drew the haunted Post 1, a slot where no Derby starter has won out of since Bill Shoemaker piloted Charlie Whittingham's Ferdinand to victory in 1986.
BEYOND THAT, Pletcher has won only two Derbies — with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017) — from 67 runners.
Those sort of numbers would be dandy for an NBA coach trying to tank.
They're not so much for a well-resourced trainer trying to prevail in his game's most-storied classic.
FOUR COLTS STAND OUT based on the classic ODage formula, an answer to the spurious Dosage theorems that had a decade of notable popularity before the new millennium suddenly cast them into a backstretch trash bin.
The four are: Commandment (No. 6, trainer Brad Cox, 6-1), So Happy (No. 8, Mark Glatt, 15-1), The Puma (No. 9, Gustavo Delgado, 10-1) and Further Ado (No. 18, Cox, 6-1).
The ODage keys: First or second in last start with a Beyer Speed Figure of at least 100 and a regression of no more than -2 Beyer Speed points from its second-to-last outing.
“WISE GUY” HORSE OF THE HOUR, according to multiple sharpies in Louisville and points north, is Chief Wallabe (No. 12, Bill Mott, 8-1).
Mott — who long ago was a regular at Arlington — is in an intriguing spot entering the race. He's defending training champ (Sovereignty), and his son Riley Mott will saddle two starters — Albus (No. 2, 30-1) and Incredibolt (No. 11, 20-1).
THE CONSPIRACY HORSE IS DANON BOURBON (No. 7, 20-1), a notable Japanese runner from the stable of Manabu Ikezoe.
The son of the underrated Maxfield was a perfect 3-for-3 in his homeland, capped by an impressive score in the Fukuryu Stakes five weeks ago.
He's also been training sharply at Churchill.
Beyond that — and this is where the gritty meets the nitty — as the Japanese thoroughbred breeding business continues to solidify its first-class status on the global map, the lords of Kentucky would benefit by having a runner from the Asian power finally win their May centerpiece.
At some point, the golden sushi will meet the bluegrass in the Churchill winner's circle.
OF MORE RECENT VINTAGE, win prices at Derbies have been on an uptick, a circumstance that only adds to the race's mystique.
When Mott's Sovereignty prevailed last year, the colt paid $17.96. That was the lowest win mutuel since Justify — the last favorite to greet the judges — returned $7.80 in 2018.
In between were such lobsters as: Mystik Dan (2024-$39.18), Mage (2023-$32.40), the rail-bursting Rich Strike (2022-$163.36) and Bill Mott's Country House, who blew up the tote board at $137.40 after getting put up following a courageous stewards' inquiry in 2019.
SO ON THE CUSP OF KD-152, some mystery and a lot of game will be in evidence as horse circus touches its ages on Louisville's Central Avenue Saturday.
With the only burgoo certainty being that someone will win.
Jim O'Donnell's Sports and Media column appears each week on Sunday and Wednesday. Reach him at jimodonnelldh@yahoo.com. All communications may be considered for publication.