The facts show that Illinois indeed has a revenue problem

When Gov. JB Pritzker proposed a General Fund budget for FY 2027 last month, he made it clear spending on services was constrained due to fiscal challenges facing the state. Not surprisingly, Republicans didn’t see things that way.

Typical of the GOP response were comments made by 94th District state Rep. Norine Hammond who slammed Pritzker’s “out-of-control” spending, and by Republican gubernatorial hopeful Darren Bailey, who repeated the trope that Illinois has a “spending” and “priorities” problem, not a “revenue” problem. That rhetoric certainly caters to the Republican base — but it’s just as certainly factually inaccurate.

Start with the canard that Illinois has a priorities problem. The FY 2027 budget proposal appropriates a total of $39.8 billion to fund services, 95% of which are targeted to the core areas of education, healthcare, social services and public safety. Those four core categories have always accounted for anywhere from 93% to 95% of total General Fund spending on services, irrespective of which party controlled the governor’s office or General Assembly.

So if the priorities getting funded in FY 2027 are somehow wrong, they’ve been wrong for generations, and neither party has seen fit to change them. Better yet, perhaps Bailey could enlighten the rest of us as to which core service area — education, healthcare, social services or public safety — shouldn’t be a priority.

The second prevarication that has to be dispelled once and for all is the contention Illinois has a “spending” rather than a “revenue” problem. All the data say otherwise. If the FY 2027 budget passes as proposed, spending will increase on a year-to-year basis by roughly $600 million. That’s a mere 1.5% more than last year, if you ignore inflation. But just like the private sector, inflation drives up the cost of funding services in the public sector. After adjusting for inflation, proposed spending on the four core services in FY 2027 is actually 1.5% less than this year.

Of course, scrimping on core service expenditures is nothing new in Illinois. In fact, after inflation, spending on the four core services would be 13% less under Pritzker’s FY 2027 proposed budget than actual spending was under Republican Gov. George Ryan back in FY 2000.

This consistent pattern of cutting spending in real terms over time has impacted Illinois’ capacity to provide services. In fact, Illinois has 10,899 fewer state workers today than it did 46 years ago in 1980, a reduction in workforce of 15.1%. Meanwhile, Illinois’ population grew by 11.2% over that same period. The upshot: according to U.S. Census data, Illinois currently ranks 48th in number of state workers per capita — despite having the sixth largest population and fifth largest economy of any state. Keep that in mind the next time you stand in line for ages when renewing your driver’s license.

Moreover, Illinois’ General Spending is also relatively low when compared to other states. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Illinois ranked 39th in per capita General Fund spending in 2024 (the most recent year for which complete data is available). It strains credulity to claim the sixth most populous state ranking 39th in per-capita spending is a high-spending state.

Yet despite Illinois’ long-term disinvestment in services, the state’s General Fund consistently runs deficits. Again, the data make it clear why this is the case: Illinois tax policy is so flawed it fails to generate revenue that grows with the economy over time. In other words, Illinois does indeed have a revenue problem. Which means eliminating the structural deficit requires reforming state tax policy to work in the modern economy, not parroting factually discredited tropes.

• Ralph Martire, rmartire@ctbaonline.org, is Executive Director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, a fiscal policy think tank, and the Arthur Rubloff Professor of Public Policy at Roosevelt University.