Cubs roster projection 2.0: New developments one month from Opening Day
MESA, Ariz. — Tyler Austin, who had an inside track for a bench job with the Chicago Cubs, underwent surgery this week on his right knee, derailing his return to Major League Baseball after six years in Japan.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell led off Wednesday’s media briefing with a rundown of medical updates, underscoring the idea that roster plans are always fluid.
Counsell expects Tuesday’s surgical procedure (patellar tendon debridement) will sideline Austin for “months.” That timeline must be a big disappointment for a 34-year-old player who was given a 40-man roster spot and a $1.25 million base salary on a split contract.
In Austin, the Cubs saw a backup first baseman and a right-handed hitter who enjoyed a brief burst of success with the New York Yankees early in his career. The club’s projections off his body of work in Nippon Professional Baseball (.945 OPS over nearly 1,500 plate appearances) were also intriguing.
But this is how it works in spring training. One player’s misfortune is another’s opportunity. The team keeps going.
So many things can happen between now and Opening Day, especially when several of Chicago’s best players will be competing in the World Baseball Classic. Plus, there are 26 remaining exhibition games in Arizona. But with one month to go until the season opener at Wrigley Field, this roster projection gets a refresh based on recent developments, camp observations and information from team officials.
Projected starting lineup:
Nico Hoerner, 2B, R
Michael Busch, 1B, L
Alex Bregman, 3B, R
Seiya Suzuki, RF, R
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, L
Ian Happ, LF, Both
Moisés Ballesteros, DH, L
Carson Kelly, C, R
Dansby Swanson, SS, R
Inevitably, Austin’s injury led to reporters asking Counsell several versions of this question: Who’s on first?
The answer is the Cubs want to give Busch 600-plus plate appearances, the long runway to build off a strong season (38 home runs, including last year’s playoffs) and continue proving himself as a Gold Glove-caliber defender. There’s no platoon system for a left-handed hitter who’s 28 with well-rounded skills and an October highlight reel.
Bench
Miguel Amaya, C, R
Matt Shaw, INF/OF, R
Michael Conforto, OF, L
Dylan Carlson, OF, Both
Although Conforto still has to earn a spot on the team, his resume should give him the benefit of the doubt, even after experiencing such a bad season that the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t roster him during last year’s World Series run. His down year forced him to accept a minor-league deal that can convert into a $2 million base salary in the majors.
Still, this is a one-time All-Star who enjoyed several highly productive seasons with the New York Mets before becoming a solid role player for the San Francisco Giants. Conforto’s left-handed presence matters if the Cubs aren’t entirely convinced that Ballesteros can handle being the club’s primary designated hitter as a rookie.
Another internal debate will be whether outfielder Kevin Alcántara and first baseman Jonathon Long will be better served by playing every day at Triple-A Iowa rather than getting sporadic at-bats at the major-league level. At some point, the Cubs expect both players to be factors. Alcántara is the No. 41-ranked prospect on The Athletic’s rankings of the sport’s top 100 prospects, while Long was the organization’s 2025 minor-league player of the year.
If the Cubs defer to the long-term development of those two prospects and prioritize experience on the bench, the 13th position player could be Dylan Carlson or Chas McCormick. But with both outfielders in Mesa on minor-league deals, that choice is very much still to be determined.
Rotation
Cade Horton, RHP
Matthew Boyd, LHP
Edward Cabrera, RHP
Jameson Taillon, RHP
Shota Imanaga, LHP
The good news is that all five starting pitchers are on track to start the season on time. Each one will be monitored for different reasons – age, workload, offseason adjustments, performance issues last season – but the Cubs are pleased with this group from both a stuff perspective and a health standpoint (knock on wood).
Coming off surgery on his left elbow, Justin Steele is targeting a return sometime before the All-Star break, which could be a huge boost. In terms of additional depth, Javier Assad and Ben Brown can be optioned to Iowa and slotted into the Triple-A rotation.
Jordan Wicks, however, is dealing with left forearm inflammation, the latest setback for the club’s 2021 first-round pick. Counsell said an MRI showed “no UCL concerns,” expressing hope that Wicks could resume his throwing program in a matter of days, not weeks.
Bullpen
Colin Rea, RHP
Jacob Webb, RHP
Hoby Milner, LHP
Caleb Thielbar, LHP
Phil Maton, RHP
Hunter Harvey, RHP
Daniel Palencia, RHP
Collin Snider, RHP
The conventional way to put together this bullpen would be lining up the free agents who signed major-league contracts this offseason, using Rea as a swingman and sticking with Palencia as the closer.
That would leave one open spot for a long list of names you may or may not have heard of before. It’s too early to rank all of those non-roster players and Triple-A pitchers with options. Stretching out Assad and Brown as starters wouldn’t prevent them from throwing multiple innings out of the bullpen at some point.
But it’s clear that the Cubs are confident in this pitching program and are eager to find the next Brad Keller, who, within 11 months, went from signing a minor-league deal to landing a two-year, $22 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
It’s also possible that an established pitcher on a deliberate ramp-up might need more time to get ready, or another injury could suddenly rearrange the bullpen plans, creating another Opening Day spot for a new reliever who opens eyes during spring training. After all, this is the time to try to catch lightning in a bottle.
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