The Cubs traded for an impact starter. Now they need to splurge on a top free-agent bat

I’m quite certain Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts doesn’t want to hear any more talk about how he should splurge in free agency.

But after trading No. 1 prospect Owen Caissie to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday in a three-player package for right-hander Edward Cabrera, the Cubs should splurge in free agency.

To varying degrees, any of the remaining Big Four hitters – Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette – would make sense.

If recent history is any indication, the Cubs aren’t a good bet to outbid the other large-market teams linked to one or more of those players – the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers.

But when the game of free-agent musical chairs ends – and trust us it will, well before the first beer is sold at Wrigley Field – the Cubs will have no excuse to be caught empty-handed.

In a sport that conducts free agency without a deadline, teams love to play the, “let’s see if his price drops” game with elite talents, angling for shorter commitments, even if they require the inclusion of opt-outs. Bellinger, lacking better options, accepted that kind of deal from the Cubs in 2024.

This time, the Cubs cannot get cute. Their competitors in free agency all can offer better offensive environments than Wrigley Field. And any player who negotiates an opt-out will want to give himself the best chance to succeed right away.

The Cubs didn’t mess around in December 2022 when they signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million free-agent contract. Swanson in his first three seasons was more than worth the money, providing $99 million in value according to FanGraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency. And guess what? The Cubs, judging from their balance sheet, are in better position to go big now than they were then.

Even after the addition of Cabrera, their projected luxury-tax payroll is nearly $32 million under the threshold. Their future commitments – $39 million in 2027, $30 million in ‘28 and $26 million in ‘29 – are in the same range as the Cleveland Guardians, a team not exactly known for its spending.

A right-handed hitter is the more immediate need for the Cubs, making Bregman or Bichette a better short-term fit. But Caissie projected to contribute in 2026 and become a full-time outfielder in 2027 if Ian Happ and/or Seiya Suzuki departed in free agency. So long-term, an opening likely will exist for the left-handed Tucker or Bellinger, just as it did for the left-handed Caissie – and might for another talented Cubs outfield prospect, the right-handed Kevin Alcántara.

Last season, the Cubs finished fifth in the majors in runs, thanks in large part to otherworldly performances by Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong before the All-Star break.

After the break, however, the team’s offense fell off markedly.

Tucker dealt with a hairline fracture in his right hand and left calf strain. Crow-Armstrong regressed to a below-average hitter. The Cubs ranked only 20th in runs per game.

In the wild-card series, they rallied to eliminate the San Diego Padres. But in the division series, they suffered a five-game defeat to the Milwaukee Brewers, the small-market division rival that finds new ways to humiliate them seemingly every season.

In eight postseason games, the Cubs scored a total of 23 runs. That’s an average of 2.9 runs per game. And that was with Tucker, who had only one extra-base hit in his 32 plate appearances.

Offensively, then, the Cubs are playing from behind. They have spent more than $30 million on five free-agent relievers and brought first baseman Tyler Austin back from Japan for $1.25 million. They paid the expected steep price for Cabrera, an oft-injured talent who is under club control for three more seasons. But with their trade of Caissie, they created more lineup uncertainty for their future.

Tucker, who cost the Cubs another promising young hitter, Cam Smith, plus infielder Isaac Paredes and right-hander Hayden Wesneski, almost certainly will be too expensive for the Cubs’ liking. He might prefer to sign with a club that plays in a more hitter-friendly park. And the Cubs, after his up-and-down 2025 season, might prefer to avoid paying him $35 million or more per season.

A reunion with Bellinger, meanwhile, would require the Cubs to beat out the Yankees, who consider the outfielder their top priority. The competition for Bregman and Bichette, too, figures to be stiff, even if it appears somewhat unclear.

Bregman, who turns 32 in March, is the oldest of the Big Four, but some in the industry believe he might age the best and almost everyone is enamored with his leadership. Bichette, 4 years younger, also could play third base, forcing Matt Shaw into a superutility role as long as the Cubs kept second baseman Nico Hoerner. Which, if they are serious about contending, they absolutely should do.

Hoerner, entering his free-agent year, was a potential trade chip for a starting pitcher, but the Cubs filled that need by adding Cabrera. Without any further moves, Chicago’s first NL Central title in a full season since 2017 should be within reach, particularly if the Brewers trade right-hander Freddy Peralta – the two teams are neck-and-neck in FanGraphs’ projected WAR estimates. But for heaven’s sake, the Cubs should be aiming higher.

I’m sure Ricketts doesn’t want to hear it, but the Cubs have fielded a top-10 Opening Day payroll only once since the pandemic – in 2024, when they were ninth.

Enough with the mid-market mindset. Chicago, by population, is the nation’s third-largest city. Let’s see the Cubs act like it.

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