In an echo from the past, international order strained
In the fifth century BCE, Thucydides wrote “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Plus ça change.
America has just flexed its considerable muscle. U.S. forces have removed the de facto leader of Venezuela -- Nicholas Maduro – in a lightning strike involving U.S. law enforcement and military forces. Maduro, under indictment since 2020 and the illegitimate leader of the country, having stolen the last election, will now face trial in New York.
It is noteworthy that the Congress never passed a resolution or law authorizing the enforcement of the international arrest warrant against Maduro. It only increased the reward for his arrest. However, even such action by the Congress would not have eliminated the many questions surrounding this action.
One can be forgiven if one came away from President Trump’s rambling, boastful press conference with the feeling that this operation was not about stopping the flow of drugs into the U.S. – the heart of the indictment -- or the restoration of democracy. Even when given the chance to take a higher road, President Trump focused almost exclusively on one word: Oil.
It was very much an echo from the past – just substitute the name of a large American oil company for the United Fruit Company and you have what used to be called Yankee imperialism.
Most striking was the president’s assertion that the U.S. will now “run” Venezuela – a nation of dangerous complexity. Administration officials expressed the expectation that Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez will “do what we want” and the president said he was not afraid of placing American boots on the ground, but the term “run” seems very questionable in a nation riven by multiple factions. Perhaps he equates the oil industry with the nation.
Rodríguez, a leftist, reportedly has a vendetta against conservative opposition leader Maria Machado. Perhaps that is why President Trump summarily dismissed the Nobel Peace Prize winner. The president asserted that Machado is not respected by or supported by Venezuelans -- who may beg to differ. Clearly, coercion is the primary tool.
What that suggests is that President Trump is intent on installing an individual loyal to him, particularly since he boasted about the conservative Latin American leaders he has recently supported and/or endorsed who had won elections.
Whether it was the president, Defense Secretary Hegseth or Secretary of State Rubio, the message was loud, clear, and not cloaked in diplomatic niceties – “don’t play games with the United States”. I am sure many of the president’s supporters responded, “damn straight.”
Russia in Ukraine, China in Hong Kong or Iran’s proxies seemingly everywhere. The rules-based international order has been under relentless attack. If one doesn’t defend it, the jungle – in the words of journalist Robert Kagan – grows back. President Trump had a couple of fig leaves he could have chosen to don – congressional support or regional cooperation -- but opted for what some will call naked aggression.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. In waxing about how well American companies will run Venezuela’s oil industry, President Trump seems to believe those companies (and perhaps some of his supporters) will do very well. In turn, does he expect those supporters to be generous to the Trump family? No one would be surprised.
This, of course, assumes some sort of post-Maduro transition does not go horribly wrong. There is little hint of planning for the day after.
The administration argues it has rid the hemisphere of a malign actor – and that’s not wrong -- but will we see a transition to democratic governance or an unholy mess? History (Iraq, Libya) suggests the latter. Was the jungle just cut back, or has it claimed more ground?
• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86. His book “American Dreams: The Story of the Cyprus Fulbright Commission” is available from Amazon.com.