Tucker, Schwarber, starting pitcher? Predictions for Cubs in free agency

When Jed Hoyer spoke to reporters in Las Vegas recently at the GM meetings, the message was all about the mound. His winter goal was to add pitching.

Since then, the Cubs gained another year of Shota Imanaga, since he accepted qualifying offer worth $22.03 million, making him the second-highest paid player on the roster at the moment, after Dansby Swanson.

Barring any trades, all of the Cubs starting pitchers are set to return. They'll have Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea, plus Javier Assad and Ben Brown; Justin Steele should be back from Tommy John surgery, and if all goes well, top prospect Jaxon Wiggins will make his MLB debut.

Meanwhile, Hoyer didn't offer any specific thoughts on free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker. But his chat seemed to suggest he's fine with putting Seiya Suzuki in right field and making Moises Ballesteros the primary designated hitter.

According to spotrac.com, the Cubs overall payroll has gone from $231 million in 2024 to $214 million last season, and is now $148 million. So there's plenty of room in the budget to add pieces.

What will happen this winter? Let's take some guesses.

Prediction: Kyle Tucker won't get a 10-year deal or $400 million in total value.

That felt like the baseline when the Cubs made the trade with Houston last year, but no more. It might be safe to say he won't get eight years or $320 million either.

Some teams might be cautious with the collective bargaining agreement about to expire, or because of Tucker's somewhat disappointing results last season or two years in a row with injury issues. Beyond that, a primary question has always been, “What team is willing to spend big?”

There's been chatter about the Dodgers, and anything is possible there. But after winning consecutive World Series titles, will the Dodgers really decide to make Tucker a high-priced priority? How much better would he make them?

The Yankees and Mets have also given out multiple huge contracts already and have other issues to address. The Red Sox might focus on re-signing Alex Bregman.

San Francisco has been mentioned as a suitor. But if Tucker didn't like hitting into the wind at Wrigley Field, then Oracle Park is not the place to go.

The feeling here is Tucker will end up with a shorter-term deal with players options, like Bregman and Cody Bellinger have gotten in recent years.

Will that send him floating back into the Cubs’ open arms? Hard to say, but it's conceivable.

Prediction: The stars could align for a Kyle Schwarber return.

This feels like a long shot, but let's assume Tucker does sign with another team. The Cubs would then face legitimate questions like, “Why trade for Tucker if you weren't going to re-sign him?” Or, “How can you claim to be a serious team when you let an all-star walk away?”

The folks at Clark and Addison don't enjoy negative publicity, so what better way to ease the pain than by bringing back Schwarber, who might be open to signing for three or four years?

They're different players, but Schwarber, 32, was a better hitter than Tucker last season. The pride of Middletown, Ohio, was fifth in OPS playing for the Phillies, while Tucker was 24th.

Hoyer hasn't been shy about admitting one of his biggest regrets was letting Schwarber leave as a free agent after the 2020 season. If Schwarber is open to a reunion, the wheels could be spinning.

Prediction: The Cubs will wait to sign a starting pitcher.

Just look at the pitching list above. They could move someone in a trade, but right now there are plenty of options for the rotation.

Among free agents, former White Sox ace Dylan Cease, a Cubs draft pick, would make sense. So could someone like San Diego's Michael King or Cincinnati's Zack Littell.

Hoyer loves to find value in starting pitcher free agents (see Taillon, Imanaga, Boyd). Maybe that guy exists in this class, but waiting for next year seems likely.

Prediction: The Cubs will re-sign at least one of their own free agents.

Granted, this is a low bar to clear. They could accomplish this one with one-year deals for left-handers Drew Pomeranz or Caleb Thielbar.

Besides Tucker, the other big fish is reliever Brad Keller. The baseball analysts have mentioned Keller as a candidate to return to being a starter, which typically brings more money.

Another opinion is Keller had success with the Cubs because he was a short-inning reliever and should stick with that. Being able to turn it loose and increase his velocity was surely a key to his 2.07 ERA.

So maybe Keller will be open to staying in the bullpen, but the Cubs will need to show the money.