What do the numbers say about Williams’ performance with the Bears this season?

The Bears hit a milestone Sunday when they beat the Minnesota Vikings on a walk-off field goal.

They improved to 7-3 and gained sole possession of first place in the NFC North. It’s the Bears’ best start since 2018 and the latest the Bears have been first in their division since that same year.

With a playoff push on the horizon, it’s a good moment to assess what’s happened so far, especially with quarterback Caleb Williams. A primary focus this season was to see whether Bears head coach Ben Johnson could bring out Williams’ full potential. A look at the numbers shows where Williams has improved and what’s left to do.

Aiming for 70%

On the first day of training camp, Johnson laid out a clear goal for Williams this season: complete 70% of his passes. Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had come close to that number almost every year with Johnson as his offensive coordinator and Johnson wanted Williams to aim for that as well.

Williams has had mixed results hitting that number. Through 10 games, Williams has completed 59.7% of his throws. That number is down from the 62.5% completion rate he had his rookie season under three offensive coordinators and two play callers.

The closest Williams has come to hitting that 70% benchmark came in his best game of the season against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. He completed 67.9% of his passes and threw four touchdown passes. It was one of four times Williams completed 60% or more of his passes in a game.

But Williams’ season completion rate has gone down recently even though the Bears have won seven of their last eight games. Williams had his two lowest completion rate games the last two weeks. He completed 55.6% against the New York Giants and 50% against the Vikings on Sunday.

Next Gen Stats adds context with its “completion percentage over expectation” statistic. The number measures how much a quarterback’s actual completion percentage exceeds his expected completion percentage. A negative number indicates that a quarterback is missing throws expected to be completed.

Williams leads the NFL in the category with a minus 7.1 through Week 11. There are different factors that impact those stats. The Bears spent most of the first half of this season learning how to play in Johnson’s offense, which led to mistakes. Some receivers have dropped passes, especially the past couple weeks.

But the numbers also indicate Williams has struggled to hit throws he’s expected to make. That’ll need to change over the next seven weeks and potentially in the playoffs.

When to run, when to pass

Another focus for Williams under Johnson has been getting the ball out of the pocket quicker. Williams has shown growth in that regard by staying in the pocket. But he still keeps plays alive by scrambling.

Williams has rushed for 272 yards and three touchdowns this year, on pace to finish near the 489 yards he ran for his rookie year. According to Next Gen Stats, he leads the NFL in time to throw per pass attempt with an average of 3.24 seconds. The Arizona Cardinals’ Jacoby Brissett is second with 3.13 average.

Johnson might be on to something with staying in the pocket. Williams has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,312 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception when he gets the ball out under 2.5 seconds, according to Pro Football Reference. He has a 52.1% completion rate and has thrown for 1,017 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions when he throws after 2.5 seconds.

It’s been a balancing act this season on knowing when to scramble or throw the ball away. But scrambling has lowered Williams’ sack numbers. Teams have sacked Williams 16 times this season and are on pace for 27.2 this year, way down from a team record 68 last year.

Airing it out

Williams partly became the No. 1 overall pick in 2024 because of his ability to throw deep passes in college. He’s had middling results so far this year.

Williams is 13th in the league with 2,329 passing yards, which is on pace to pass Erik Kramer’s 3,838-yard single-season Bears passing record, and 19th with 13 thrown touchdowns. He’s also 15th with four interceptions. But the numbers go down the farther Williams tries to throw away from the line of scrimmage.

According to Pro Football Focus, Williams has his highest completion rate on throws behind the line of scrimmage, 87.8%. He’s thrown for 272 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions on those attempts. Williams is 75.4% accurate on passes between the line of scrimmage to nine yards for 965 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions and 51.5% accurate on passes from 10 to 19 yards for 578, four touchdowns and three interceptions.

But deep ball accuracy remains a problem a year and a half into Williams’ career. He’s completed 33.3% of his passes of more than 20 yards for 514 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Williams is ninth in the NFL with 16 big-time throws according to PFF, which is a “pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

Clutch play

There is one statistic that can’t be disputed about Williams this season: He comes through in the clutch.

Williams has played a pivotal role in many of the Bears’ comebacks this season. He’s led fourth-quarter game-winning drives against the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants and the Vikings. According to Pro Football Reference, Williams is tied with the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix for the NFL lead in fourth-quarter game-winning drives.

Williams is 5-1 in one-score games, 1-1 in game decided by 8-14 points and 1-1 in games decided by 15 points or more.

Comparison game

Because Williams headlined a talented quarterback draft class, let’s wrap up by comparing Williams with his classmates.

The New England Patriots’ Drake Maye is putting together a most valuable player season with his performance under first-year coach Mike Vrabel. Maye leads the league with 2,836 yards and a 71.9% completion rate to go along with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. Nix is 10th with 2,421 passing yards along with a 61.2% rate, 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

The Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Atlanta Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. and the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy are all below 20th in most categories.