The Bears made their move when they put QB Williams on the move

The Chicago Bears pulled a rabbit out of a hat once again Sunday.

Chicago trailed the New York Giants by 10 points with just over 10 minutes left in the game Sunday. But quarterback Caleb Williams led the offense down the field for touchdowns on its last two drives to come back and win the game. The Bears improved to 6-3 on the season as they started the second half of the season.

Williams made plays when it mattered the most. He moved the ball down the field by making critical throws and by using his legs to score or be in position to score. Williams ran for a season-high 63 yards along the way. But a deeper look at the numbers show how Williams helped change Sunday’s result.

Here’s a look at how the Bears pulled off another comeback win Sunday.

Caleb Williams runs it out

Williams changed the trajectory of Sunday’s game when he started to use his legs to gain positive yardage more in the fourth quarter. His 29-yard run down the sideline jump-started the Bears’ comeback during their penultimate drive while Williams’ 17-yard scramble gave his team the go-ahead score.

Sunday’s rushing performance was some of Williams’ best in his career. It’s come at a time when Bears head coach Ben Johnson had looked for Williams to pick up positive yardage with his legs. The 29-yard run was the longest rush in his career and 63 total rush yards was Williams’ second-highest rush total in a game.

But Williams had used his legs before to get to that point. Williams scrambled five times, according to Pro Football Focus, to avoid pressure from the Giants’ talented pass rush to pick up positive yardage. The 64 yards he gained off those scrambles were the most by a quarterback in Week 10.

New York’s defenders had a hard time getting Williams down even when they thought they had him. Williams forced three missed tackles after a rush, according to PFF, which was tied for second in Week 10. He ranks third among all quarterbacks this season with 10 missed tackle on rushes.

That elusiveness led to frustrations for Giants defenders. Sunday was just the second time this season Williams wasn’t sacked in a game, according to Statmuse. The other game was in Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Williams has been sacked 14 times this season and is on pace to be sacked 26.4 times this season. That would be a major difference compared to the team-record 68 times Williams was sacked last year.

Mr. Clutch

Those runs were highlights in what was yet another comeback led by Williams this season.

Sunday was the fourth time Williams led a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. He led clinching drives against the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals. Williams is tied for Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield and Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix for the most this season, according to Pro Football Reference.

Williams showed traits of his clutch play during his rookie season even when the team finished the year at 5-12. He led a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 1 in his first game against the Tennessee Titans and his first fourth-quarter game-winning drive against the Green Bay Packers in Week 17 to end the year.

Missed opportunities

For how well things went running the ball for Williams, the passing game missed plenty of opportunities Sunday. Bears targets dropped plenty of passes that limited Williams to 220 passing yards as they struggled to get on the same page with him as he scrambled.

Those struggles were reflected in the analytics. According to Next Gen Stats, Williams led quarterbacks in Week 10 with a minus 16.6% completion percentage above expectation. A negative percentage means Williams did worse than expected on his throws. He now leads the league this season with a minus 7.1%.

Williams’ actual 55.6% completion rate was the lowest of the year and his overall completion rate this season stands at 60.8%. It’s roughly 10 points lower than the 70% completion rate Johnson has wanted to hover around this year.

Cutting it close

Sunday was another game where the odds seemed against the Bears winning late.

Things looked bleak for the Bears late. Chicago faced its longest odds when it had a 3.1% chance to win with 5:35 left in the game, according to ESPN Analytics. The Bears trailed 20-10 and Williams had just missed wide receiver Rome Odunze on second-and-10.

The Bears have faced similar odds this year. Chicago had a game-low 19.3% against the Raiders with nine minutes left in that game, 15.9% against the Commanders with over 11 minutes left in the game and 14.1% against the Bengals with 42 seconds left.

Playoffs?

Sunday’s win secured the 6-3 Bears their best start since 2018. Chicago also started the season 6-3 in former Bears head coach Matt Nagy’s first season in charge. The Bears went on to finish the season 12-4 and lost in the wild-card round to the Philadelphia Eagles.

This start has some asking whether the Bears can make the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season. ESPN gave the Bears a 49% chance to qualify for the postseason after Week 10 while NFL.com gives the Bears a 40% chance.

It won’t come easy. Tankathon.com lists that Chicago has the fourth-hardest strength of schedule with their remaining eight games.