The worrisome signals in Trump’s nuclear saber rattling
A short time before his meeting with China’s President Xi at the end of October, President Trump posted the following message on Truth Social, apparently surprising his staff:
“The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”
So, let’s unpack some of the statements in this post.
• While both the U.S. and Russia are limited to 1,550 deployed nuclear weapons on all platforms (ground, sea, air) by the New START treaty, Russia has more weapons in storage than the U.S.
• The trillion dollar-plus upgrade to all three legs of our nuclear triad began under the Obama administration. It was the price Obama had to pay to get the Senate to ratify the New START treaty. The treaty entered into force in February 2011. The first Trump administration increased the price tag of the upgrade.
The modernization program is far from complete. It is behind schedule and over budget and some elements might not be completed until the 2040s or 2050s.
• China has about 600 nuclear weapons and is rapidly building more. It is projected it might have 1,000 weapons in five years but will not be equal with the U.S. or Russia.
• The Department of Defense (aka War) has nothing to do with the testing of our nuclear weapons. That is the responsibility of the Department of Energy and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said this week that DOE has no plans to end the 33-year U.S. moratorium on nuclear weapons testing. The U.S. never ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty but has adhered to it.
• There is no credible evidence that other nations are testing nuclear weapons. The last known nuclear test was by North Korea in 2017. Recently, Russia touted testing nuclear-powered delivery systems, but has not conducted a test of a weapon. In congressional testimony in the past week, Vice Admiral Richard Correll, the nominee to head the U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees our nuclear deterrent, said that nether China nor Russia had tested nuclear weapons.
We are currently upgrading parts of our Nevada test site, but we can test weapons components without setting off a nuclear explosion. One can test weapons via computer simulations.
The President’s tenuous relationship with the truth (and sometimes reality) is well documented. When he is fact-checked, he usually bulldozes his interlocutor, as he did to Nora O’Donnell on 60 Minutes.
His use of threats to attempt to gain leverage in negotiations is a common tactic. But what was the purpose of this announcement? Was he trying to somehow intimidate President Xi? That clearly failed.
It is worrying that he is not on the same page with other members of his administration, but it is more worrying that he is sending a signal that might be misinterpreted by other nations and lead to a breakout of nuclear testing.
I am of the generation that watched the 1983 movie “The Day After” about nuclear Armageddon that shook President Reagan and provoked a national conversation. Today we have “A House of Dynamite,” about a nuclear attack on Chicago to remind us that the nuclear threat has not gone away, and it is the responsibility of our leaders to reduce that threat and not to rattle nuclear sabers
• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86. His book “American Dreams: The Story of the Cyprus Fulbright Commission” is available from Amazon.com.