Why the Chicago Blackhawks aren’t sweating their next NHL draft slot

There was no reason to believe the Chicago Blackhawks were going to be better than the 31st or 32nd team in the NHL this season.

Based on their projections and every other teams’ projections, so much would have to go right for the Blackhawks to finish higher than worst or second worst. That does happen with a few teams every season, but it’s still unexpected. The Athletic projected the Blackhawks to finish with about 70 points and in 32nd place.

Eight games into the season after Thursday’s 3-2 road win against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Blackhawks are well beyond exceeding projections. They’re 4-2-2 and have 10 points, a total they needed 13 games to reach last season. Some of that is on goalie Spencer Knight, acquired in the Seth Jones trade with the Florida Panthers last season, but the Blackhawks also look more organized than they have in recent years. One of the unknowns heading into this year was the effect first-year coach Jeff Blashill would have on the Blackhawks. So far, that effect has been positive.

Yes, eight games doesn’t make a season. And yes, the Blackhawks could end up faltering drastically in the coming months and still finishing near the bottom of the league. But for the sake of discussion … let’s say they don’t. What if they’re better than expected? Not a playoff-caliber better, but finishing somewhere higher than they have been the last three years, likely placing them lower in the draft lottery. From a big-picture perspective, what could that mean for general manager Kyle Davidson’s rebuild plan?

To understand that, we need to start with Davidson’s original rough outline.

When he took over as the permanent general manager in March 2022, he identified that the Blackhawks’ biggest issue was a depleted prospect pool. The original plan was to draft quantity and quality. In his first attempt, he started the 2022 draft with zero first-round picks but ended up with three — defenseman Kevin Korchinski, forward Frank Nazar and defenseman Sam Rinzel — and also drafted two second-rounders and three third-rounders.

A year out from his second draft, Davidson’s dream was to select Connor Bedard and aligned the Blackhawks’ roster for the 2022-23 season for that possibility. The lottery balls still needed to pop in the Blackhawks’ favor, but they did, and Bedard become a Blackhawk. With Bedard in hand, Davidson’s rebuild plan changed. As good as some other players in the 2023 draft were projected to be, none were expected to have Bedard’s on-ice ceiling or off-ice marketability. If not for Bedard, Davidson’s rebuild likely wouldn’t have been backed by the same level of owner patience and understanding.

Bedard also gave Davidson a star to build around, which changed the roster’s future outlook. In the same draft, Davidson took Oliver Moore later in the first round in addition to three more second-rounders and two more third-rounders.

By design, the Blackhawks’ roster didn’t improve much the following season. The plan again was to draft as high as possible. The Blackhawks finished 31st in the standings, and the lottery kept them at that draft slot. With the idea to build a defense first, the Blackhawks drafted defenseman Artyom Levshunov with the No. 2 pick. Davidson also drafted two more forwards, Sacha Boisvert and Marek Vanacker, in the first round, and three more third-rounders.

As the Blackhawks approached the 2024-25 season, Davidson wanted his team to improve and wasn’t banking on another top-three pick in the next draft. The expectation wasn’t anywhere near the playoffs, but 70-plus points didn’t seem unrealistic. That would still likely provide a draft pick in the Nos. 5-7 range, which likely meant a good player. But the season didn’t follow that path, and the Blackhawks finished 31st again and landed the third pick. That wasn’t the plan, but it also likely helped the long-term plan more than it hurt it. The Blackhawks took Anton Frondell, whom they believed was the best forward available, at No. 3 and also added forwards Václav Nestrašil and Mason West in the first round.

All of this brings us to this season.

Davidson has been careful not to publicly set expectations for this season like he did last one. The Blackhawks front office was hopeful its young players would take a step forward this season as they did late last season, but there was no real target in the standings. The grand plan isn’t to finish the season with a shot at likely No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna. Even if the Blackhawks finish better than projected, they are likely to still draft early in the first round, but considering what’s already in their pipeline, another top-10 pick is enough.

Davidson’s plan seems more defined than it was three-plus years ago. There’s a stronger belief the Blackhawks can build almost entirely from within, especially after moving Jones and most of his contract and the steps the young players have already taken. The Blackhawks are confident Bedard, Nazar and Frondell are definitive top-six players. Roman Kantserov is trending in the right direction in Russia as he leads the KHL in goals and is tied for sixth in points. He is expected to be in North America next season. The Blackhawks liked what they saw from Moore and Nick Lardis in college and the OHL the last two years, and the two have begun the season nicely in the AHL in Rockford. Both have top-nine potential, and both could be up in the NHL later this season.

The Blackhawks are also really high on Boisvert and think he’s another high-end player. He could sign after his college season. Vanacker is on a tear to start his OHL season and will either be in Chicago or Rockford next season.

Add in Ryan Greene, Landon Slaggert, Colton Dach, Samuel Savoie, A.J. Spellacy, Aidan Thompson and Martin Misiak, along with a few others, and the Blackhawks think they will have plenty of options to fill out their roster in the coming years. Veterans Ryan Donato, Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teräväinen all have multiple years on their contracts, too, and will have roles along with the youth. Donato’s four-year extension is already looking promising as he’s scored five goals in the first eight games to follow up his 31-goal season.

Defensively, the Blackhawks have most of their young players already in the NHL. Levshunov, Rinzel, Alex Vlasic and Wyatt Kaiser could be their top four for years. The Blackhawks also believe Kevin Korchinski will still pan out given more development time. With him, Louis Crevier, Ethan Del Mastro and Nolan Allan, they also like their depth defensive options. And in net, Knight is playing like a true No. 1 at 24 years old. The Blackhawks also have some promising goaltending depth at various ages with Arvid Söderblom (26) in the NHL, Drew Commesso (23) and Stanislav Berezhnoy (22) in the AHL, Adam Gajan (21) in college and Ilya Kanarsky (20) in the VHL in Russia.

Where the Blackhawks pick with their first selection in the 2026 draft will shape the rebuild, too. A top-three pick would be expected to be a difference-maker. From there, expectations usually lessen as you move on in the draft. But even if the Blackhawks are drafting closer to No. 10 than No. 1, they should be able to get someone who can be in the NHL within two or three years. That would be more than fine with Davidson.

So if this season goes better than expected for the Blackhawks — with Bedard, Nazar, Knight, Rinzel, Levshunov and company continuing to develop and Blashill helping in the present while proving he could be the coach of the future — the Blackhawks will gladly accept wherever that ultimately puts them in the standings and in the draft. Whether you agree or disagree with how Davidson’s gone about the rebuild from the start, his plan does appear to be on track.

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