Sorting through the Big Ten’s second tier: Who still has a shot at contention?

Posted October 09, 2025 11:23 am

By Scott Dochterman

By Saturday evening, there’s a chance that the four-team tie atop the Big Ten standings will be cut in half, and possibly down to one.

Halfway through the season, the Big Ten seems destined to become a two-team race. In a top-10 clash, No. 3 Oregon hosts No. 7 Indiana while top-ranked Ohio State travels to No. 17 Illinois. Ohio State plays neither Oregon nor Indiana, so that result provides the winner with a victory and a tiebreaker.

Beyond the top-10 trio, there are as many as nine other teams with at least one loss that could compete for both the league title and a College Football Playoff spot. However, none of them are infallible. Let’s break down nine teams that have a reasonable shot at remaining in league title contention entering midseason.

No. 15 Michigan (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten)

Path to contention: Michigan’s schedule is a real asset. Until the season finale at home against Ohio State, the Wolverines don’t face a ranked opponent. Among Big Ten teams, Michigan is third in both rushing yards and rushing yards allowed, and in its 30-27 win at Nebraska, it won the ground battle 290-45. In the Big Ten, that’s always a path to victory.

Key game: Saturday at USC. A win should nudge Michigan toward the top 10, but it’s never easy for the Wolverines on the West Coast. Since winning the 1997 national title at the Rose Bowl, Michigan is 1-10 west of the Rocky Mountains. The Wolverines’ only win came in overtime against Alabama in the 2023 CFP semifinals at the Rose Bowl.

Fatal flaw: Uber-talented quarterback Bryce Underwood is going to win plenty of games, but Michigan’s completion percentage ranks last in the Big Ten. If the Wolverines get into a shootout with the Trojans, it’s not ideal.

No. 17 Illinois (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten)

Path to contention: The Illini could use a little history-making magic this weekend against No. 1 Ohio State. The last time Illinois beat a top-ranked team, it was against Ohio State in 2007. The last time a ranked Illinois team hosted a No. 1 team was 1950, when it beat … Ohio State. Last year, Illinois hosted and beat defending national champ Michigan in Week 7 on the 100th anniversary of Red Grange’s epic performance. This year, Illinois hosts the defending national champ in Week 7 on the 100th anniversary of the Illibuck traveling trophy.

Key game: Oct. 25 at Washington. With a week off before a long trip, the Illini need to be ready to visit a place where the Huskies have won 22 of their last 23 games. These trips are perilous for Midwest teams, and if Illinois loses to Ohio State, it becomes a must-win scenario.

Fatal flaw: 63-10! A 7-2 Big Ten record probably doesn’t get Illinois into the Big Ten title game, but at 10-2, it lands in the CFP conversation. However, critics will use the 63-10 loss at Indiana against the Illini in every comparison. Illinois needs to turn it into one bad day, not an indication of mediocrity.

Nebraska (4-1, 1-1)

Path to contention: Behind talented sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola, the Huskers rank second among Big Ten teams in both passing yards and completion percentage. They are also No. 1 in both categories on defense. To make a push for a Big Ten championship, teams need a special quality, and Nebraska has it.

Key game: Oct. 17 (Friday) at Minnesota. Nebraska has lost its last five matchups with the Gophers, including four straight losses by one score. Minnesota’s tenacity and discipline have often tipped the balance in those games. If Nebraska matches those intangibles, it wins. If not, it flies home disappointed.

Fatal flaw: Nebraska ranks 17th among Big Ten teams in run defense and 14th in rushing offense. Two of its three power-conference opponents have rushed for 200-plus yards, while Nebraska has 110 rushing yards combined in two Big Ten games. Those areas must improve for Nebraska to approach double-digit victories.

USC (4-1, 2-1)

Path to contention: Right now, it’s all about Jayden Maiava’s arm. He leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game (317.4), has 11 touchdowns to just one interception and completes 70.5% of his passes. The Trojans will need Maiava to continue slinging it with similar success against some of the country’s better defenses in Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Iowa and Oregon.

Key game: Saturday against Michigan. After a last-second loss last year in Ann Arbor, this is a chance for USC to score a high-profile win with the mutual benefit of likely knocking out Michigan’s CFP hopes. USC could do the same the following week at nonconference rival Notre Dame.

Fatal flaw: Once again, it’s defense. Among conference teams, the Trojans rank 17th in pass defense and 14th overall defense, and they have yet to play an offense that ranks in the Big Ten’s upper half. USC also ranks last in penalty yards.

Washington (4-1, 1-1)

Path to contention: After sleepwalking through three quarters, Washington exploded for 229 yards in the fourth quarter of a comeback win at Maryland. Quarterback Demond Williams completed nine of its final 10 passes and with receiver Denzel Boston and running back Jonah Coleman, Washington has one of the nation’s most explosive trios.

Key game: Oct. 18 at Michigan. The Wolverines beat Washington two years ago for the CFP title, but the Huskies gained revenge last year at Seattle. This year, the game kicks off at 9 a.m. PT, which was not kind to the Huskies last year in blowout losses at Iowa (40-16) and Indiana (31-17).

Fatal flaw: Washington’s offensive inconsistency could hold it back. The Huskies averaged 55.7 points per game in nonconference play, but it took seven quarters to score a touchdown against a Big Ten opponent. They can’t afford stretches like that against Michigan, Illinois and Oregon.

Iowa (3-2, 1-1)

Path to contention: Perhaps no team is more self-aware than Iowa, and that includes its reliance upon defense (No. 1 in the Big Ten against the run, fifth in total defense), limited penalties (best nationally) and special teams. Iowa has also withstood a multitude of injuries at running back to pose a solid running game, and quarterback Mark Gronowski has grown into a dual-threat weapon.

Key game: Oct. 18 vs. Penn State. The Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions have made magic against one another for 30 years. This one is a Big Ten and CFP elimination game under the lights at Kinnick Stadium.

Fatal flaw: Although it’s improving, Iowa doesn’t have enough juice in the passing attack to win games in that facet. If any of these teams could enter CFP conversation with a 9-3 overall mark, it’s Iowa. That’s double-edged hope, though. Its final six opponents currently have winning records.

Penn State (3-2, 0-2)

Path to contention: Without a quality nonconference game — let alone a win — and two immediate losses in Big Ten play, the only path for Penn State is to win its final seven games. The Nittany Lions still have a capable roster, but it’s going to take some chutzpah to navigate a trio of Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana. Of the three, only the Hoosiers come to State College.

Key game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. The Nittany Lions aren’t getting into the Big Ten race or CFP contention without a win against the Buckeyes. Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2016. If it’s another loss in this series (which goes on hiatus until 2028), the misery will be incalculable.

Fatal flaw: Penn State ranks no higher than fifth in any major Big Ten statistical category against mostly subpar opposition. Some committee members and the public will view Penn State’s loss to a winless UCLA team, without its head coach and coordinators, as an instant disqualification for the CFP. The only way to cover up that loss is for Penn State to win out and prove it was an aberration.

Maryland (4-1, 1-1)

Path to contention: True freshman quarterback Malik Washington has elevated Maryland’s passing game with 1,257 yards, nine touchdowns, two interceptions and a 60.1 completion percentage. His playmaking ability could keep the Terrapins competitive.

Key game: Oct. 11 vs. Nebraska. Without a nonconference game against a power-conference team, Maryland must beat Big Ten teams in similar positions. With games against Indiana, Illinois and Michigan on the horizon, this is one shot for the Terrapins to reassert themselves as a Big Ten title game dark horse.

Fatal flaw: Maryland was close to a 5-0 start with a 20-0 lead against Washington late in the third quarter. Then, it fell apart in a 24-20 loss. Maryland has plenty of issues, particularly as the league’s worst rushing and third-down offense, No. 17 in completion percentage and No. 16 in penalties. Each of those detriments is costly against good competition.

Minnesota (3-2, 1-1)

Path to contention: The Gophers have an advantageous schedule. Only one of their final seven opponents is ranked, and five of them played in the old Big Ten West. Redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey has quietly made strides, and running back Darius Taylor, who has seen limited action since the season opener, is one of the league’s top runners when healthy.

Key game: Oct. 17 vs. Nebraska. If Minnesota wants to entertain a modicum of hope, it must beat Nebraska. The Gophers haven’t lost at home to the Huskers in 10 years.

Fatal flaw: Minnesota doesn’t have an elite trait, either on offense or defense. Without a healthy Taylor, its running game has languished near the Big Ten’s bottom. If Minnesota can’t run, it won’t contend for anything beyond a bowl bid.