Transit doomsday is postponed, but cuts are coming to CTA in 2026, Metra in 2027, agencies say

A shortfall facing Metra, Pace and the CTA when COVID-19 funding runs out in 2026 has shrunk from an estimated $771 million to $202 million, the Regional Transportation Authority said Friday.

But the so-called fiscal cliff will “balloon back to $790 million in 2027 and grow each year if the state does not enable sustainable funding,” RTA Chairman Kirk Dillard said.

The CTA estimates significant cuts to buses and trains starting in the summer of 2026 while Metra and Pace suburban service should be able to stave off reductions until 2027.

A surge in state sales tax revenues, cost-control efforts and a 10% fare increase helped slim the $771 million figure.

2027 “is when it gets serious for Metra,” said Executive Director Jim Derwinski, who anticipated service reductions of up to 40%.

“Trains would go down to once an hour, every two hours on the weekend. This is totally reversing all the work we’ve done” to rebuild ridership after the pandemic, he said.

The railroad also anticipates eliminating very early morning trains and late trains.

The cutbacks could cancel 267 weekday trains compared to 665 now, and 189 weekend trains.

“This would completely change the way people use Metra,” Derwinski said. It’s unlikely, however, that Metra would completely cancel a line.

For the CTA, “the service cuts we may be forced to make beginning in 2026 will be the single largest transit service cut in the modern history of the Chicago Transit Authority,” acting President Nora Leerhsen said.

2026 alone could bring an up to 25% reduction in CTA service and in summer 2027 nearly 1,800 workers could be laid off, Leerhsen said. The impact will mean crowded buses and trains and more time spent waiting in stations and at stops.

For Pace, if cuts are necessary to suburban bus service, it’s anticipated the first round would start in spring 2027 with more to come that December, Executive Director Melinda Metzger said.

However, a popular Uber service (Rideshare Access Program) and Taxi Access Program for disabled riders might have to be canceled in March 2026 unless new funding emerges, Metzger said. Traditional paratransit service with prearranged rides would be unchanged.

The Illinois Senate approved a transit reform bill on May 31 that would dissolve the RTA and create a new oversight agency with greater authority over Metra, Pace and the CTA. It also would have generated more than $1 billion for transit through a number of new taxes such as a controversial $1.50 fee on numerous online deliveries.

The House did not vote on the measure but is expected to take up the legislation in its veto session this month.

State Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado, one of the key House legislators involved in transit negotiations, criticized the RTA for not appropriately planning and communicating.

“This is one of the major reasons any funding must come with significant governance reform. As we head into veto session, the choice in front of us remains clear: We can continue to let the RTA cobble together patchwork solutions while delivering unreliable service, or we can bring sustainable long-term funding to the system and true governance reform,” the Chicago Democrat said in a statement.