Strike early? Cubs must contend with Padres accomplished bullpen

A very basic strategy will be important for the Cubs in this week's wild card series against San Diego: Grab an early lead.

The strength of the Padres is their bullpen, which posted an MLB-leading 3.05 ERA this season.

Right-hander Robert Suarez led the National League with 40 saves in 45 attempts and averaged 98.6 miles per hour with his four-seam fastball.

The Padres brought even more heat at the trade deadline by landing Mason Miller from the Athletics. Utilizing his 101-mph fastball, Miller has posted an 0.77 ERA since moving to San Diego, with 45 strikeouts in 23 innings.

This was way back in April, but the Cubs faced a combined four innings of Suarez, plus Miller when he played for the A's, managing 1 hit and no runs.

Former Cubs draft pick Jeremiah Estrada leads all MLB relievers in strikeouts with 108 — Miller is third with 104 — though Estrada's ERA is the highest of the group at 3.45.

Adrian Morejon is the primary left-hander in this pen. He throws a 98-mph sinker, boasts a 2.08 ERA and has the most wins (13) by a National League reliever since Roger McDowell in 1986.

The Cubs will also likely see 21-year-old righty Bradgley Rodriguez (1.42 ERA), who throws both a four-seam and sinker above 98 mph. He's made six major league appearances after debuting in May.

This group used to be even better. Former Cubs right-hander Jason Adam (1.93 ERA) was lost for the season on Sept. 1 with a left quad tendon rupture.

The Padre pen is holding up well in the late season, with a 2.76 ERA and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings in September. Cubs relievers are at 3.34 and 11.2.

Hot or not

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 1.147 OPS and 4 home runs during the past two weeks. Go back three weeks and Jackson Merrill is the hottest-hitting Padre, with a 1.000 OPS. Luis Arraez finished the season on a 15-game hit streak.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts missed about a month with a foot injury before returning Sept. 23. He's gone 5-for-14 at the plate in the last four games.

On the other end, Manny Machado was in a 3-for-25 slump before homering Sunday. Former White Sox outfielder Gavin Sheets hit .169 in September and has 1 home run in his last 28 games.

For the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki hit 5 home runs in the last four games, while Michael Busch has been scorching. Since Sept. 10, Busch is second in MLB (behind Aaron Judge) with a 1.335 OPS.

Pete Crow-Armstrong had a decent week (.300 BA), while Kyle Tucker went 1-for-11 with a walk in his return from a calf injury. It seems unlikely Craig Counsell would sit Tucker in this series, but Moises Ballesteros did lead the team with a .999 OPS in September.

Season series

The Cubs and Padres split six games, each winning two of three at home, but it all happened a long time ago. San Diego was the opponent for the Cubs home opener on April 5, and the most recent game played between these teams was April 16.

The Cubs won the first two games at Wrigley Field 3-1 and 7-1, as the Padres couldn't generate much offense against pitchers Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd.

Going for the sweep, the Cubs led 7-3 after two innings with Ben Brown on the mound, but ended up losing 8-7 as the Padres scored single runs in the eighth and ninth against Porter Hodge and Ryan Pressly.

Second baseman Arraez hit .423 against the Cubs. Nico Hoerner (.417 batting average), Carson Kelly (1.121 OPS) and Ian Happ (.360 BA) were the Cubs' best hitters against San Diego.

In the rankings

Even with their late-season lull, the Cubs were a top-10 offense in MLB. They finished fourth in runs scored, sixth in home runs and seventh in OPS.

San Diego, meanwhile, was 18th in runs, 16th in OPS and 28th in home runs. The Cardinals and Pirates were the only teams with fewer homers.

As mentioned above, the Padres' strength is their bullpen. The Cubs actually had the better starting pitcher ERA, 3.85 to 4.08.

All of San Diego's starting pitchers are right-handed, which might bode well for the Cubs' lefty-dominated lineup.

Padres starter Nick Pivetta — slated to face Boyd in Game 1 — finished with a 2.87 ERA, but lasted just 3 innings in a loss at Wrigley on April 5. Cubs draft pick Dylan Cease and ex-Cub Yu Darvish are options to start Games 2 or 3.

Against the ivy

In three years of the three-game wild card series, visiting teams have won four and lost two in the National League.

The Cubs finished 50-31 at home, tied for seventh-best in MLB. San Diego was 38-43 on the road.

Playoff history

The Padres are in the playoffs for the fourth time in six years. They've won the wild card series twice since it came into existence. They went on the road to beat the Mets in 2022, then beat Atlanta at home last season.

The Cubs last playoff appearance was 2020, when they lost 2-0 to Miami with no fans at Wrigley Field. This will be the first playoffs with fans on the North Side since the 2018 wild card loss to Colorado.

No need to mention the one other time the Cubs met the Padres in the playoffs, but it happened in 1984.