Shuffling the deck: Difficult pitching decisions loom for Cubs in wild-card series

Brewers manager Pat Murphy was once asked if he envisioned Craig Counsell as a future MLB manager when he coached Counsell at Notre Dame.

Murphy's answer was no. He figured Counsell would go into finance or something similar.

When it comes to career challenges, the next one will be especially difficult — figuring out which Cubs pitchers to use in the postseason.

Consider this the equivalent of Counsell taking the GRE exam as an undergrad, looking to land a spot at a prestigious MBA program. Maybe the LSATs too. Citizen Counsell would get a law degree, probably, right?

Whatever pointless analogy is used, postseason pitching will be a puzzle for Counsell and the Cubs. They've got to sort out old and young, fresh and tired arms, and an abnormal number of pitches leaving the yard lately.

So let's break it down. There are some variables still to be decided, but here are the recommendations:

Top tier

The starters for the first two games of the wild-card series should be easy — Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon.

Horton has been the best pitcher in the majors during the second half of the season. He absolutely needs to take the mound early. After two stints on the injured list, Taillon has the freshest arm of the starters, and it's showed, giving up 2 runs in 10 innings in his latest return.

Does it matter who pitches Game 1? Not really. One might argue it's not fair to send rookie Horton out for opening night of the playoffs. But there would be pressure if he starts Game 2 with the Cubs trailing 0-1 in the series.

The way the rotation is set up, Taillon and Horton are scheduled to start the final two games of the regular season. So one key is to win a few games and clinch home field in the wild card before those final two days. Then use Aaron Civale, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Austin Gomber or whoever they need to cover those games.

Shota swings

Another question is what to do about Shota Imanaga, who has surrendered 10 home runs in his last five starts?

He's been generally pretty good outside of the home runs, and the Reds did hit a couple tough pitches into the seats on Friday. But the magic has definitely faded. The Cubs were once 33-12 in games started by Imanaga, now they're 3-6 since Aug. 1.

The phrase, “Dance with who brought you,” could be applied here, if dating and dances still existed. The best plan is to put Imanaga third in line, to either pitch Game 3 of the wild card, Game 1 of the division series, or wait till next year if the Cubs get swept.

Should Counsell consider using an opener for Imanaga to combat all those first-inning home runs? The answer is yes, that should be considered.

For the record, likely wild-card opponent San Diego typically starts right-left-right with Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez and Manny Machado at the top of the batting order. The Padres have a .681 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, .720 against righties.

Boyd and beyond

An issue we've mentioned for weeks has been obvious lately. Matthew Boyd's season-high in innings pitched between 2020-24 was 78⅔, due to some injuries. This year, he's at 174⅓.

In other words, Boyd is wearing down. His second-half ERA is 4.74. During the past month, it's 6.49.

Here's a suggestion: Boyd is set to make his final start of the regular season on Wednesday against the Mets. If the Cubs get to the point where they need a fourth starter, then maybe Boyd, with more than a week of rest, is an option, with Colin Rea ready to go in long relief.

The Cubs might decide to just use Rea as the fourth starter. Javier Assad, who spent most of the year sidelined by an oblique strain, should also have a fresh arm.

Just remember, the standard rules of baseball decisions apply: If it works, you're a genius. If not, you're an idiot.

Bullpen banter

The big question here is if Daniel Palencia is able to return from a shoulder strain. He's expected to pitch for Iowa this weekend. If Palencia is healthy, he should be on the playoff roster, though maybe not the closer.

Ryan Brasier pitched a scoreless inning, with 2 hits allowed, for Iowa on Friday. The toughest calls for the bullpen would be whether to bring back Brasier, who had a rough second half; and whether to keep Porter Hodge on the playoff roster. Hodge has given up 3 home runs in his last 6 innings but should get a few more chances to build positive momentum this week.

Leaving Boyd off the roster for the wild-card series is definitely an option. That's harsh, but he could come back for the next round.