Upward swing: Is recent improvement by White Sox a sign of what’s in store?
| Before | After | |
| Runs scored | 28 | 4 |
| Home runs | 28 | 4 |
| Batting average | 30 | 4 |
| OPS | 30 | 7 |
| wRC+ | 28 | 7 |
| W-L | 32-65 | 22-23 |
For most of the summer, finishing with fewer than 100 losses felt like an impossible dream for the White Sox.
Then a six-game win streak arrived this week, and heading into Saturday's action, the Sox need to go a reasonable 9-11 the rest of the way to avoid the century mark.
At this point it's worth asking: Are the White Sox on the path to real success?
The offensive improvement has been remarkable. Before the all-star break, the Sox ranked last in MLB in batting average and 28th in runs scored.
Since the break, they are fourth in MLB in both categories, fourth in home runs and seventh in OPS.
Through Friday, the Sox had five players in the top 81 in OPS since the all-star break, and three of those players made their major-league debuts this year. The list includes Kyle Teel (.917), Colson Montgomery (.883), Miguel Vargas (.841) and Edgar Quero (.838), plus Luis Robert Jr. (.808), who is on the injured list and may be done for the year.
Also, all six of the victories in this week's surge were comebacks, beginning last Sunday when the Sox ended the Yankees' seven-game win streak.
“So proud of the group,” White Sox manager Will Venable said this week. “We talked about it all year with these guys continuing to fight and obviously earlier in the year not getting the results. It’s really nice to continue that competitive spirit and get some good results.”
Montgomery has 18 home runs since making his MLB debut on July 4. Only Kyle Schwarber has hit more (19) in the second half. Montgomery, Teel and Quero have managed to avoid the typical rookie “scouting” slump, when opposing pitchers start to discover a player's weakness.
The White Sox are on pace to make the biggest one-year improvement in MLB this season. And there is a recent history of American League teams making fast turnarounds.
The Astros went from 111 losses in 2013 to the playoffs in two years, which began a long run of postseason success. The Orioles jumped from 110 losses in 2021 to the playoffs in two years but have been falling since. The Tigers lost 96 games in '22, then were in the playoffs last season.
One advantage all three of those teams had was being able to load up on top-five draft picks. The Astros had five in seven years, the Orioles four in six years and Tigers five in eight years.
The White Sox are dealing with a new era in MLB with a draft lottery and anti-tanking rules. So they've had just one top-five pick since 2020 but are free to land the overall No. 1 selection next year with some lottery luck.
It makes sense for the Sox to run it back next year with the same group of position players. General manager Chris Getz has hinted at exercising Robert's $20 million team option for next season. Maybe the ultimate goal is to trade him, but Robert could also spark the team by hitting his peak level more consistently.
The pitching hasn't been quite as successful during the second half. The best performances have come from their two Rule 5 additions, starter Shane Smith and reliever Mike Vasil.
The young starters haven't really shined. Sean Burke and Davis Martin have been decent at times. Burke's ERA since the break is 3.92. But Jonathan Cannon, who came into the season with high hopes, has been disappointing.
The good news is there's more help available in the minors. Outfielder Braden Montgomery was a key piece of the Garrett Crochet trade. The Red Sox' first-round pick in 2024 has moved up two levels to Double-A Birmingham this year and is now listed as the White Sox' top prospect (No. 32 overall).
“I think our organization is full of a bunch of young, really good players,” Montgomery said on a Zoom call this week. “A lot of those guys have made their debut this year, but we still have more guys on the way up.”
The prized left-handed pitchers in the minors — 2022 first-round pick Noah Schultz and '24 first-rounder Hagen Smith — have both had some injury issues this year. Schultz was promoted to Triple-A Charlotte, posted a 9.92 ERA in five starts and is on the injured list.
Those two might still make their major-league debuts in 2026. The Sox have gotten a couple of encouraging performances by lower draft picks — righty Tanner McDougal and lefty Shane Murphy. Murphy just made his Triple-A debut this week after producing a 1.38 ERA in 18 starts at Birmingham.
The Sox will also have pitchers Drew Thorpe and Ky Bush coming back from Tommy John surgeries next year.
Sure, there's a chance this is all false hope, even though Colson Montgomery's powerful swing seems very real. But that's a significant improvement from the No Hope At All era.