Why the Packers are the quiet pick to win the NFC North
It’s pretty easy to forget about the Green Bay Packers these days.
Within the NFC North, the Chicago Bears have all the buzz, with former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator and quarterback guru Ben Johnson taking over as head coach as he tries to make Caleb Williams look like the No. 1 draft pick that he was. The Lions are the reigning division champs but are reeling from a brain drain that also included defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn leaving to become head coach of the New York Jets. And the Minnesota Vikings moved on from quarterback Sam Darnold despite a season worthy of NFL MVP consideration to hand the reins to a raw second-year passer who missed all of his rookie season following surgery.
As for the Packers, well, things are pretty much ho-hum. Matt LaFleur remains among the premier coaches in the NFL, and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has a year under his belt in Green Bay. Quarterback Jordan Love had a significantly compromised 2024 and appeared to be fully healthy this year before suffering a thumb injury in the preseason opener; he’s expected to be ready for Week 1. And the team’s one lingering malcontent, oft-injured cornerback Jaire Alexander, was granted his release in June. Best of all, no one even brings up Aaron Rodgers in these parts anymore. But don’t mistake a lack of drama for lack of ambition.
Still one of the youngest teams in the NFL, the Packers last year reached the postseason for the fifth time in six seasons under LaFleur (67-33), winning 11 games or more for the fourth time. Color me among those who would not be surprised if the coach reached his first Super Bowl in this campaign.
“They have as good a shot to go as anybody,” said one NFL head coach, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss other teams freely. “They are underrated, and that’s one of the best head coaches in the league. They’re going to be a problem. Detroit is taking a step back again this year — I mean, with what they lost on their staff, it would be unbelievable if that didn’t happen.
“Green Bay has talent and depth on both sides of the ball, and I don’t think Jordan was ever close to being right last year. He got hurt in Brazil (in Week 1), and he was fighting it all year. This is the best group of skill position players he’s ever had around him. … If you told me right now they won the division and were a top-three team in the NFL and the top seed in the NFC, I wouldn’t flinch.”
Amid the Lions’ rise to regular-season juggernauts under coach Dan Campbell, the Packers have not won the NFC North since 2021, but that could change this season. Despite Love’s dip in form — he led the league in interceptions for a spell early last season, when he clearly was battling injury — Green Bay did not lose consecutive games until Weeks 17 and 18, when there was nothing to play for beyond wild-card seeding.
The Packers’ only losses outside of Week 18 to Chicago were to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Lions and the Vikings — all high seeds in the NFC. The Packers were 10-1 outside the division and 1-5 in it — that’s unlikely to happen again, given the Lions’ and Vikings’ significant offseason departures.
One longtime NFL advance scout, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not permitted to speak openly about the teams he studies, said Eagles general manager Howie Roseman “has the best roster in the NFC, but Green Bay might be the next-best team. The coach is obviously a lot like (the Los Angeles Rams’ Sean) McVay, and Sean got his Lombardi and I think this guy is going to end up with one, too. They are still really young, but they have playoff experience. They check a lot of boxes for me.”
The Packers and the Baltimore Ravens were the only teams to rank among the top five in the NFL in yards gained and yards allowed per play last season. Hafley promised to instill a culture of takeaways, and it worked: His team ranked fourth in turnovers forced. Green Bay was in the top five in giveaways through Week 9, largely because of Love’s struggles, but tied for the sixth-fewest turnovers from Week 10 on.
Despite a pass rush that lacks individual brilliance, Green Bay finished in the middle of the pack in pressure rate (16th). Depth at cornerback is a potential issue, especially with Alexander gone. And more young pass catchers must step up. But this team made at least modest gains from its routinely horrible special teams play (though still with ample room for improvement), and it boasts, perhaps most importantly, one of the best quarterbacks rooms in the NFL.
Malik Willis took full advantage of LaFleur’s coaching and Love’s injury to show what he could do when thrust into the starting role. (“He’s going to be a starter again in this league and could start for at least a half-dozen teams right now,” the advance scout said.) And Love has MVP upside. Consistency eludes him, but he gets better as the stakes rise and has a ridiculous 107.6 passer rating in his career from Week 10 on, completing 67% of his passes with 30 touchdowns to just four interceptions (while going 11-6 in those games).
“Green Bay will go as Love goes,” said one GM, who is not permitted to speak freely about players under contract to other teams, per the NFL’s tampering rules. “I thought he was good last year but not great, but that’s probably because he wasn’t right (physically). He couldn’t really plant for a while there, it looked to me, and his mechanics were all (messed) up. If he stays healthy, they could be the team to beat in the NFC.”