Food prices follow inflation uptick; beef hits record high
After a few months of a downward trend, inflation is on the rise again with food prices following suit.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in June and 2.7% in the past 12 months.
Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.3% from April to May, with food prices in May 2.9% higher than a year ago.
Prices for beef and veal jumped 8.6% higher in May compared to a year ago. Overall, beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 6.8% this year due to tight supplies and continued consumer demand.
“U.S. demand for beef has remained strong even as prices hit record highs,” said Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Federation economist, who noted the domestic cattle supply is at a 74-year low.
Meanwhile, pork prices rose 0.7% from April to May and were 0.6% higher than in May 2024.
Pork prices are predicted to increase a modest 0.5% in 2025. In contrast to beef, pork production is projected to increase this year.
“It is a bit of a delicate balance and especially with all the global uncertainty, more measured (pork) production growth is probably beneficial in these times,” said Erin Borrer of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.
Retail egg prices decreased for the second month in a row, falling 7.5%. Egg prices in May were still 41.5% higher than in May 2024, continuing to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022.
In April, confirmed cases of HPAI tapered and in May, the number of confirmed detections remained low compared with earlier in the year.
Egg prices are predicted to increase 33.2% in 2025, which includes price increases already realized from January through March 2025. USDA reported that even if retail egg prices continue to decrease over the coming months, higher prices realized earlier in the year will continue to factor into the forecast.
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise at about the historical average rate of growth. This year prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.9% with food-at-home prices up 2.2% and food-away-from-home prices up 3.9%.
Prices for poultry, sugar and sweets and nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase, while prices for items like fresh vegetables are expected to ease.
USDA data shows farmers both made and paid more for products in May.
The index of prices received for May rose 1.7% due to gains in categories like cattle, hogs and milk, that offset losses in categories like broilers, market eggs, lettuce, and strawberries.
The index of prices paid was up 0.4% as increased costs for categories like feeder cattle, hay and forages and nitrogen canceled out decreases in some categories including feeder pigs, self-propelled machinery, LP gas and complete feeds.
Compared to a year ago, the index of prices received was 13% higher thanks to a boost in livestock prices, while the index of prices paid was up 6.4%.
• This story was distributed through a cooperative project between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association. For more food and farming news, visit FarmWeekNow.com.