Cubs should focus on Pittsburgh to find pitching help
If the Cubs want to have as many options as possible heading into next week's trade deadline, this is not the way to do it.
Kansas City right-hander Seth Lugo has been mentioned as a pitcher who could be available. But after taking two out of three from the Cubs at Wrigley Field, the Royals (50-53) may choose to stand pat and chase an AL wild-card spot.
The Cubs lost to Lugo 8-4 on Wednesday as starting pitcher Colin Rea gave up three home runs with the wind blowing out. Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong hit solo homers for the Cubs.
Lugo used nine different pitches against the Cubs and lowered his season ERA to 2.95 by giving up two runs in six innings. He might be a useful addition, but Cubs trade talk is going to be tricky.
The feeling here is in order to make a big splash before next Thursday's deadline, the Cubs need to focus on the Pittsburgh Pirates as a trade partner.
The Pirates have a young starting pitcher who figures to be available in right-hander Mitch Keller. They also have two of the better relievers in the National League in David Bednar and Dennis Santana. This seems like the smoothest avenue for Jed Hoyer to improve the pitching staff.
The Cubs' best trade piece is outfielder Owen Caissie, who has caught fire at Triple-A Iowa with a 1.380 OPS in July. As mentioned here before, the Cubs might think about keeping him around in case they can't re-sign Kyle Tucker.
But it seems clear Hoyer will not give up Caissie for an expiring contract, a rental player who is likely to leave at the end of the season.
Lugo, 35, has a player option for next season at $15 million. He's potentially a rental, but either way, not really a long-term solution. It's debatable, maybe unlikely, the Cubs would give up Caissie for Lugo. They do have another outfield option in Kevin Alcantara that might interest the Royals, but hard to say.
With Keller, 29, the Cubs would basically be getting a younger version of Jameson Taillon, who is under contract for the next three years. His fastball is rated in the 97th percentile by Statcast.
Bednar, 30, hasn't given up an earned run since May 23. Santana, 29, has a 1.49 ERA, while opposing batters are hitting .130 against his slider and .186 against the four-seam fastball. Both relievers have one more year of team control.
With the worst offense in MLB, the Pirates should have an interest in Caissie. They could start him in left field in place of Tommy Pham the day after the deadline.
What would it take to land Keller and a reliever? Would the Cubs include Ben Brown? Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos or Alcantara, any of the other three top-100 prospects in Iowa? One of the better relievers off the major-league roster?
The Cubs would be less enthused about trading shortstop Jefferson Rojas, who just made his Double-A debut, or top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins. But all-in means all-in.
If the Cubs can't work out a deal with the Pirates, the trade options are less obvious. Some of the pitchers mentioned, like Minnesota's Joe Ryan, Miami's Edward Cabrera or Washington's Mackenzie Gore, will be very expensive, if they're available at all. All three are under team control until 2028 or '29.
Arizona has Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen and third baseman Eugenio Suarez headed into free agency but are still in wild-card contention with a 50-53 record.
Miami's Sandy Alcantara would likely cost less, but the former Cy Young winner hasn't been very good this year coming back from Tommy John surgery. He did beat the Padres on Wednesday, but the season ERA is 6.66.
The best chance for the Cubs might be to see what the White Sox will take for Adrian Houser, who played for Craig Counsell in Milwaukee and has a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts since joining the Sox. He'll be a free agent after the season.
Caissie would be a nice fit on the South Side too, but the White Sox don't have the assets Pittsburgh can offer.