Trade deadline success doesn’t always match perception

The Cubs headed into Saturday's action with the best record in the National League and looking to improve before the July 31 trade deadline.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted this reality when he spoke to reporters Friday: No one wins the trade deadline when it happens.

It might seem like it. There may be a nice trade on paper or a battle won for a coveted player. But it takes until the end of October, and maybe a few years beyond, to really judge the success of a deadline trade.

Just look at the Cubs the past two years when they added a pair of third basemen. Jeimer Candelario in 2023 seemed like a winning addition, but he didn't make much of an impact and got hurt.

Isaac Paredes was supposed to be an improvement from Christopher Morel and he really wasn't. Morel outhomered Paredes 18-3 in a Cubs uniform last year and they had the same number of errors (9) at third base. Paredes did help bring Kyle Tucker to the Cubs.

“Now, I would argue if you look at (Paredes') home-roads splits last year, he was awesome on the road for us,” Hoyer said. “But yeah, I think sometimes, it's like 55 game games after the break, that's a small sample.

“You can have a really good player that has a pretty mediocre 55 games and you can have a player that just had a mediocre first half that now turns it on.”

Starting pitching seems to be the top need for the Cubs, with a bullpen arm, more experienced third baseman or reliable bat off the bench lower on the wish list.

A wide variety of pitchers have been mentioned as possible targets. White Sox righty Adrian Houser has been terrific on the South Side. Miami's Edward Cabrera is a possibility while teammate Sergio Alcantara has a 7.14 ERA. The A's Luis Severino, Kansas City's Seth Lugo, Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller, Colorado's German Marquez and Arizona's Merrill Kelly are some other names that could be on the market.

Can Hoyer find the sweet spot of an effective pitcher for a fair price? Can Houser keep up his current level into October? Will Alcantara find his pre-injury, Cy Young form?

“I always use the '21 Braves as an example,” Hoyer said. “They basically went regression shopping. They got Eddie Rosario (from Cleveland), they got Jorge Soler (from Kansas City), they got Joc Peterson from us and they won the World Series. All those guys were really struggling in the first half.”

So how does a baseball executive set out to make the right call before deadline day?

“You try to make nothing a guessing game, but certainly … you can try to look under the hood and see if there's reasons for optimism,” Hoyer said. “Is this a guy we can tweak something with? Has he been unlucky?”

The Cubs’ history of trade deadline acquisitions is pretty evenly distributed between good, bad and in-between. Here's a look at some memorable acquisitions from all three categories:

Winning moves

Aramis Ramirez, 2003 — The Cubs may never do better in buyer mode than this trade. Not only did they land one of the best third basemen in franchise history from Pittsburgh, he hit the home run to essentially clinch the team's first playoff series victory in nearly 100 years.

Aroldis Chapman, 2016 — Much-needed relief for the World Series run, though this trade did cost the Cubs three-time all-star Gleyber Torres.

Luis Salazar, 1989 — The division title may not have happened without Salazar, who was acquired from San Diego. He hit .368 in the NLCS and delivered a huge game-winning RBI in extra innings after St. Louis got within a half-game in September.

Nick Castellanos, 2019 — After arriving from Detroit, Castellanos hit .321 with 16 home runs in 51 games. It almost seems like a typo. But the team still managed to miss the playoffs, then Castellanos signed with the Reds as a free agent.

Mike Montgomery, 2016 — He's the only man alive who has thrown the final pitch of a Cubs World Series victory. A useful player, Daniel Vogelbach, went to Seattle in return.

Neutral

Cole Hamels, 2018 — Posted a 2.36 ERA in 12 outings but lost his last three starts, which proved costly.

Nomar Garciaparra, 2004 — It's easy to come up with negative thoughts about that '04 team, but Nomar did OK, hitting .297 with the Cubs. The following season didn't go well.

Rich Harden, 2008 — Posted a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts after joining Cubs from Oakland. But he cost them future MVP Josh Donaldson and lost Game 3 of an ugly playoff series against the Dodgers.

Negative returns

Jose Quintana, 2017 — This could easily fit in the neutral category, since Quintana did fine, with a 3.74 ERA after the trade. Dylan Cease becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball a few years later is what made this move regrettable. The Cubs drafted Cease and Justin Steele back-to-back in 2014.

Jeimer Candelario, 2023 — Maybe it was worth a shot, but the third baseman hit just .234 and got injured during his second stint with Cubs.

Tom Gorzelanny, 2009 — His 5.63 ERA after arriving from the Pirates wasn't about to float an already sinking ship.

Justin Wilson, 2017 — This one is almost comical, since the lefty reliever posted a 5.09 ERA after the trade, while the Cubs sent two future reacquisitions (Paredes and Candelario) to Detroit in return. Wilson is at Wrigley Field this weekend, on the Red Sox active roster, by the way.