Ceasefire in Iran gives rise to new calls for a deal to end Gaza war

CAIRO - Arab mediators and Israeli hostage families are making a renewed push this week for a deal to end the war in the Gaza Strip, using Israel’s successful strikes on Iran, as well as a ceasefire brokered by the United States and Qatar, to make the case that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has enough political capital to bring the grueling, 20-month conflict to a close.

Discussions between Hamas and Egyptian and American interlocutors have picked back up in Cairo, several people briefed on the talks said, and President Donald Trump told reporters at a NATO summit Wednesday that “great progress is being made on Gaza,” partly because of the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.

But whether renewed momentum will translate into a deal depends largely on Netanyahu, who faces conflicting pressures from members of his cabinet to either end or intensify the war in Gaza. Egypt has invited Israel to send a delegation to Cairo for another round of talks but has not received a response, according to a former Egyptian official and another individual familiar with the status of negotiations, both of whom, like others in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.

Almost as soon as Trump announced Monday evening that Israel and Iran had agreed to stop their mutual attacks, Arab countries sought to turn diplomatic attention back to Gaza, where a humanitarian crisis has spiraled out of control.

“We must not forget in this regard that everything that is happening in the region is an expansion of the conflict taking place in Gaza,” Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said in a news conference Tuesday, adding that Qatar was working with Egypt to “reach a ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible.”

Israel launched its war in Gaza in retaliation for the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people and saw some 250 others taken back to the territory as hostages. More than 56,000 people have been killed in Gaza as a result of Israeli attacks, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

In Iran, Israeli strikes that began June 13 killed at least 627 people, according to the Iranian Health Ministry. Twenty-eight Israelis were killed by Iranian missile fire, according to the Israeli government. As the world focused on that war, Israeli attacks in Gaza killed at least 870 Palestinians, according to a review of Gaza Health Ministry data.

Desperate for calm after a volatile 20 months in the region, and spooked by the war between Israel and Iran, Arab governments emphasized this week that a main cause of instability in the region - the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict - must be resolved.

The families of Israeli hostages, meanwhile, have sought since Tuesday to turn attention back to the fate of the 50 hostages still held by militant groups in Gaza, at least 20 of whom are believed to be alive. A group of these relatives and some former hostages, many of whom were released under previous ceasefire deals, traveled to Capitol Hill this week and made the case for a deal to lawmakers and U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler.

Egyptian mediators have been speaking to Hamas officials in Cairo in recent days to try to get the talks back on track, according to a former Egyptian official with knowledge of the talks. An Arab diplomat confirmed Thursday that “renewed ongoing contacts” between the parties were underway.

Hamas official Taher al-Nunu said contacts with Qatar and Egypt were ongoing and that Hamas is “serious about reaching an agreement to end the war comprehensively.”

“Stopping the war is possible if there is political will from the Israeli leadership, especially Netanyahu. This requires clear approval to end the war, withdraw from the Strip, allow the entry of aid and end the siege with a serious exchange deal,” he said in a text message. “We have shown clear flexibility on many other issues related to the future of the Strip and the duration of the truce, and we confirmed our readiness for a decisive round of negotiations.”

Palestinian American businessman Bishara Bahbah, who helped broker a deal in the spring for Hamas to release Israeli American hostage Edan Alexander, told Palestinian media this week that he had spoken with a senior Hamas member in Cairo and that a ceasefire could be reached “within days.”

Despite the optimistic statements from some mediators, no formal negotiation sessions have been scheduled, Nunu said.

Before the war between Israel and Iran, the Gaza ceasefire talks had already reached a stalemate. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff had proposed a limited, 60-day deal that would include a halt to the fighting and the return of some hostages. But the same fundamental disagreement has stymied progress for months: Hamas wants a permanent end to the war and a withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, but Netanyahu has still shown no indication he is interested in bringing the war to a close. Israel wants Hamas to disarm and its remaining leaders to leave Gaza.

“Israel has agreed to the Witkoff proposal and is prepared to enter negotiations,” David Mencer, a spokesman for Netanyahu’s office, told reporters Thursday. He accused Hamas of obstructing efforts to reach a temporary deal.

Iran has long supported Hamas both financially and militarily, but analysts said the war in Iran is unlikely to significantly shift Hamas’s calculus, since the group operates more independently of Tehran than other Iranian-aligned militias in the region. Israeli strikes in Iran this month took out its military leadership, including commanders responsible for liaising with Hamas.

“Hamas, of course, regards Iran as an ally and as a supporter,” but the movement can “exist even without the Iranian support,” said Michael Milshtein, a former head of Palestinian civil affairs for the Israeli military. Hamas inside Gaza has been cut off from Iranian material support since Oct. 7, 2023, and historically, it could also count on other sources of funding.

“Hamas’s position on any negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Gaza is not tied to fleeting regional fluctuations,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, a Palestinian political analyst close to Hamas.

The more perceptible shift has been in Israel, Milshtein said. “There are more people who speak about the fact that we defeated Iran, so why do we need to be stuck in the mud of Gaza?” he said.

Israeli analysts, hostage families and opposition politicians say Netanyahu has prolonged the fighting to ensure his political survival. His shaky coalition rests on support from far-right hawks who advocate for Jewish resettlement of the enclave and have threatened to bring down the government if it ends the war. Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption, but he has been able to slow-roll that process by citing prime ministerial duties to delay hearings.

“I believe that going for a temporary deal now would be a grave mistake,” far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in an interview on Israeli television Wednesday. He added that Israel should continue its military campaign in Gaza and seize the enclave’s territory.

But Israel’s war in Iran, which was highly popular among the Israeli public, changed the strategic picture in the region and may have given Netanyahu the political capital he needs to agree to a Gaza ceasefire, said Shira Efron, research director at the Israel Policy Forum.

“More than before, the conditions have been created for ending the war in Gaza,” Aryeh Deri, a member of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, told an Israeli news outlet this week.

A chorus of Israeli commentators and politicians has urged Netanyahu to end the war, pointing also to the growing toll on the battlefield: Seven soldiers were killed in southern Gaza on Tuesday when a bomb affixed to their vehicle exploded, the Israeli military said in a statement.

“Netanyahu, be Trump. It isn’t too late,” political commentator Ben Caspit wrote in Israel’s Maariv newspaper on Wednesday, referring to Trump’s decision to ignore critics from the isolationist wing of his party to bomb Iran.

“You need to put an end, here and now, to the needless war in Gaza,” Caspit wrote. “The best of our sons are dying there now, and for what?”

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Abbie Cheeseman in Beirut and Lior Soroka and Alon Rom in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.