NBA Finals: Can small-market matchup revive NBA’s lackluster ratings?
The NBA was trending all year toward a Cleveland-Oklahoma City meeting in the Finals, which would be a good test of smaller market drawing power. As it turned out, the league dropped a few thousand television sets with No. 25 market Indianapolis vs. No. 47 Oklahoma City.
To be fair, OKC combined with Tulsa would be the 23rd-ranked market. There are longer drives (with traffic) from the suburbs to the United Center than Tulsa to OKC.
For decades, we've heard national pundits talk about how the NBA wants the Lakers and Celtics in the Finals as much as possible, so ratings will presumably be high. No one said anything about the NFL being in trouble when there was a Colts-Saints Super Bowl, so this is a positive step for the NBA.
Can Thunder vs. Pacers draw as many viewers as a run-of-the-mill NFL doubleheader game? Two things are important here:
1) Keep it competitive. The last two NBA Finals (Celtics-Mavs and Nuggets-Heat) have been duds, over in five games. There hasn't been a seven-game Finals since Warriors-Cavs in 2016.
The Thunder is a heavy betting favorites in this series, with the smallest odds on the Finals ending in five games. There is potential for entertaining games, with the up-tempo Pacers facing OKC's powerful offensive lineup.
And there's a nice set of rising stars between OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton. If the series gets to 2-2, people should take interest.
NBA Finals ratings in general could use a boost. The last five have been relatively weak. Bulls-Jazz in 1998 drawing an average of 29 million viewers is a record that will probably never be broken. If this year's Finals gets half that, NBA officials would be ecstatic.
2) Referees can make a difference. When this year's playoffs started, refs swallowed their whistles and many games were over-the-top physical. Whether the calls in this series are tight or seldom, just be consistent. Nothing's worse than when five rough plays in a row are ignored, then a foul is called when a star draws light contact.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been accused of foul-baiting, and that's clearly a large part of his game. Overall in the playoffs, he's tied for third in free-throw attempts per game, behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell, tied with Luka Doncic.
The Thunder and Pacers have nearly identical free-throw numbers during the playoffs, averaging 19 makes per game. Indiana has an edge in 3-point shooting, shooting 40.1% in the postseason, compared to 33.6%.
The bottom line is, Oklahoma City won 68 games this season, compared to 50 for Indiana — that's why the Thunder is such a heavy favorite.
The Pacers can match OKC's star power, offering Haliburton and a surging Pascal Siakam to counter SGA and Jalen Williams. Indiana's supporting cast, guys like Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin have come through with some huge games in the playoffs. They'll need to continue that to have a chance in the Finals.
Prediction: Thunder in six games.
Thibs moves on again
Let's take a moment to reflect on Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau being let go this week, despite lifting the franchise to its best success in a quarter century.
This story may seem wildly familiar to Bulls fans. With Thibodeau as coach, the Bulls made the playoffs five years in a row, including a trip to the Eastern Conference finals. Since Thibs was fired, they've made the playoffs in two out of 10 years, though that can also be explained by a series of horrible personnel decisions.
A demanding coach like Thibodeau is going to have a limited shelf life. What doesn't make sense with the Knicks is they made two major acquisitions this year (Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges) and had better success. This was a team still on its way up.
Sports executives can fall in love with the idea of, “It will take a different coach to get us from Point C to Point D.” But not many coaches are as good as Thibodeau at landing on Point C. The next coach may not simply pick up where Thibs left off.
There were complaints about not using the bench enough in the playoffs, but that's how New York's roster was built. The Knicks gave up depth to add Towns, Bridges and OG Anunoby to the starting lineup. This summer would be a good time to add a bench player or two with the mid-level exception. Maybe the fast-paced Pacers were just a bad matchup.