Can the Bears make the playoffs? The schedule doesn’t help

The 2025 schedule is out and the Bears now know the path for what is shaping up to be an important season.

The Bears will be under the spotlight right from the start. They’ll open on Monday Night Football against the Minnesota Vikings on Sept. 8 at Soldier Field. It will be the first of five stand-alone games the Bears will play this season.

There are plenty of reasons for the intrigue surrounding Chicago. New head coach Ben Johnson takes over after being one of the top head-coaching candidates over the past few offseasons. Quarterback Caleb Williams returns after an up-and-down rookie season, looking to prove he was worth the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft.

The Bears are expecting to take a major step after a disastrous 5-12 season last year. Bears general manager Ryan Poles hired many roster needs during the offseason.

In order to do that, though, the Bears will need to get off to a good start with one of the tougher schedules in the NFL.

Destined for a good start?

There aren’t many “easy” parts on the schedule. Seven of the teams Chicago play made the playoffs last year and five of those teams have qualified for at least two consecutive postseasons.

But the Bears do have an opportunity to set themselves up for success by getting off to a good start.

Chicago starts the season against the Vikings, then travels to Detroit, hosts Dallas and heads to Las Vegas Raiders before a Week 5 bye. Although most teams would prefer their bye to be closer to the middle of the season, an early bye could be a good moment to assess the good and bad that’s happened.

The Bears’ season-opener seems like good spot to face a division rival. They’ll likely open the season against Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who would be making his first career start after missing all of last season with a torn meniscus. It will be a tough task for McCarthy’s first start to be against the Bears’ veteran defense.

The next three teams each have new coaching staffs. The Lions replaced both their offensive and defensive coordinators and position coaches, including Johnson, while the Cowboys (Brian Schottenheimer) and Raiders (Pete Carroll) each have new head coaches.

Like the Bears, all three teams will be trying to find their footing during the first month of the season. The Lions might take a small step back with their new coaches, but the talent is still there. Going to Ford Field in Week 2 for an emotional return for Johnson likely will be the Bears’ toughest early test.

The next two games won’t be cakewalks, either. After going 7-10 last season because of injuries, the Cowboys will try to get back into playoffs. The Raiders traded for quarterback Geno Smith for Carroll, who could made an impact for a 4-13 team in his return to coaching.

Playoffs?

Ten could be the magic number Bears fans look for this season. With the exception of last season, 10-win teams have qualified for the playoffs every year since the NFL expanded the field in 2021. The Seahawks missed the postseason last year despite winning 10 games.

Many sports betting oddsmakers expect the Bears to make a jump from last season. Most lines currently have the Bears’ 2025 over/under win total listed at 8.5.

Can the Bears get to 10 wins? It won’t be easy with their schedule.

The Raiders, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Cleveland Browns all finished with worse records than the Bears last season. The Steelers and Cowboys each have over/under win totals equal to or less than the Bears’. Those are six winnable games on the Bears’ board.

Then the Bears need to reverse their NFC North record. Chicago is 3-15 in the division since Poles took over in 2022. Unlike the past few seasons, the Bears appear ready to compete with their rivals. If Chicago at least splits those matchups, that’ll be at least three more wins.

The rest of the Bears’ schedule — the Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles — is filled with teams expected to win more games than the Bears. Just like the Bears won’t win all the games they’re favored in, they’ll likely steal one or two games in games they’re set as underdogs.