Cubs bullpen power rankings: Which Chicago relievers are the most reliable?
The dynamics of a bullpen can shift quickly. A trusted reliever can suddenly look shaky after just a handful of so-so outings and vice versa. The Chicago Cubs bullpen’s ERA ranks 22nd in baseball, at 4.59. But if one were to look only at the current eight relievers, that number drops to 3.67. Not elite, but significantly better.
Like nearly every playoff team, the Cubs will need to supplement their bullpen in some way come July. What type of reliever and how much they have to pay are the questions. But for now, they’ll likely have to make do with whom they have in the organization.
Here’s a power ranking of the Cubs’ bullpen group as presently constructed. Like relievers themselves, this list is volatile and could shift from day to day. But heading into play Friday, here’s a subjective look at the current trustworthiness of each reliever in the Cubs bullpen.
1. Brad Keller
He strikes guys out, doesn’t walk them, puts the ball on the ground and can hit triple digits with his fastball — which happens to be the most valuable pitch, by Statcast’s Run Value, of any offering in the Cubs bullpen. What’s not to like? Manager Craig Counsell seems to trust him in almost any situation. That versatility is probably why he isn’t closing games but rather being used whenever and wherever Counsell needs.
2. Caleb Thielbar
On April 6, Thielbar’s ERA was above 6.00 and he had a 26.3% walk rate. Since then, the lefty has been nails. Over his last 14⅓ innings, he has a 1.80 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate. Over that span, he has faced the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants twice each, the latter three on back-to-back days.
“Shortened up arm action just a touch, and that’s kind of what makes it click,” Thielbar said of his turnaround. “It was just a matter of getting into the rhythm of the season, too.”
Thielbar could see the arm-action issue from side angles while watching video. It’s something he has learned will happen, and he knows he just needs to get out there and get it right. The fastball gets more ride and the curve more bite once his delivery is right. It has earned him a ton of trust from Counsell, who continues to put him in difficult situations that he manages to handle with aplomb.
3. Drew Pomeranz
The next three on this list are all close, but Pomeranz gets the edge because he has been brilliant in 8⅔ innings. He has struck out 29% of the batters he has faced and walked just 6.5% while allowing zero runs. At 93 mph, his average fastball velocity is down a tick from his peak but still gets good stuff grades, and he pairs it nicely with a knuckle curve that he has yet to yield a hit with. Remember when the Cubs had big questions with their left-handed pitching? Right now, trading for Pomeranz is looking like another smooth move by Jed Hoyer and company. Health feels like the key here with Pomeranz.
4. Daniel Palencia
Palencia has finally earned some trust after years of showing off tantalizing stuff. He’s still walking too many (12.2%), but that’s down from the previous season, and the strikeouts are starting to pile up (26.5%) as he’s limiting runs. He’s averaging 98.9 mph with his four-seamer, locating it up in the zone brilliantly and allowing an .097 batting average against on the offering.
5. Porter Hodge
Wednesday’s outing was encouraging. Despite allowing a walk and a hit, Hodge struck out two batters in a scoreless inning. He had gone four outings without striking out a batter, and the last time he’d struck out multiple batters in an appearance was April 13. If he stacks up a few more outings like this, he’ll quickly rise up this list.
6. Chris Flexen
In seven innings of work, he has allowed one run. Flexen is hardly flashy, but he fills his role nicely: Eat innings, save the bullpen and throw strikes.
7. Ryan Pressly
Pressly’s disaster outing last week against the Giants felt like it was inevitable. He just wasn’t missing bats, and it was becoming a concern. But in his next two outings (1⅓ innings), he struck out two and walked one. Nothing brilliant, but he needs small steps forward to earn back those high-leverage moments.
“There’s been some good progress with Press over the last few weeks,” assistant pitching coach Casey Jacobson said. “We’ve had some pretty productive meetings. Some of it is traditional deception and making sure we’re using stuff the right way. And some of it was delivery stuff we felt could help him recapture some of his best version and keep the hitter guessing.”
If Pressly starts missing bats again, it’ll be encouraging. The Cubs need a trusted veteran reliever like him to step up; otherwise, it ramps up the urgency of finding someone at the trade deadline who has done it before.
8. Julian Merryweather
After allowing multiple runs in three of his last four outings, it is officially time to be concerned with Merryweather. His average fastball velocity is down two ticks to 96 mph from his peak in 2023. Merryweather has dealt with a multitude of injuries over his career and missed significant time last season, including a stint late in the season with a right knee issue.
Though Jacobson wouldn’t say if he’s hurting now, he did say, “There’s aches and pains throughout the course of the season that guys are dealing with.” In his last outing, Merryweather’s fastball velocity was down to 94.2 mph, his lowest of the season.
“The delivery is going to impact a lot of the output stuff,” Jacobson said. “Whether he’s feeling really good on a day or maybe doesn’t, that’s going to adjust some of the delivery things, what he feels he can get to as far as the lower-half output.”
The Cubs know what Merryweather’s best version looks like and are working to get him back there. Much more of this, though, and they’ll have to consider putting him on the injured list if he’s not healthy or make tough decisions, especially with Gavin Hollowell looking solid in his brief outings.
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