China’s Xi in Moscow for Putin’s parade amid close ties, despite US hopes

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a pomp-filled summit two years ago, he had a special message: Together, he and Putin were driving “changes the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years.”

He was signaling Chinese and Russian confidence in the United States’ inevitable long-term decline and the opportunities opening up for Beijing and Moscow, according to analysts.

That goal appears suddenly closer, with President Donald Trump’s retreat from global leadership, threats to absorb other countries and territories, disruption of NATO and transatlantic ties, and steep tariffs on about 90 countries.

Xi is in Moscow from Wednesday through Saturday and will attend Friday’s Victory Day military parade marking 80 years since the end of World War II. The visit will include meetings with Putin and showcase the importance of their close ties, as well as publicly dispel talk of the Trump administration seeking to split them by offering inducements and concessions to Moscow while targeting its toughest tariffs against Beijing.

When Xi spoke of driving changes not seen for a century, “it’s essentially an upending of the American-led order,” said Richard McGregor, senior fellow for East Asia at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute. “I certainly think it underlines how Xi sees Putin in the partner for that.”

As Xi faces a more confrontational and unpredictable U.S., demonstrating that China has friends, especially in Moscow, is important — much as Putin, since invading Ukraine, has relied on China to project his global clout and signal he still has powerful partners, despite Western attempts to isolate him.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the meetings between Putin and Xi “will further deepen the political mutual trust between China and Russia, enrich the connotation of strategic cooperation, promote practical cooperation in various fields, bring more benefits to the people of the two countries, and contribute more stability and positive energy to the international community.”

Trump’s tariffs have put China under immense economic and political pressure, spurring Xi to boost ties with Asia and Europe and portray Beijing as a beacon of calm, resolute stability and Trump as a reckless force wreaking global economic havoc.

“This visit gives Xi a chance to reaffirm that close partnership with Putin and to remind the world that ties between Beijing and Moscow remain solid,” said Patricia Kim, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

But Russia’s economy is also under intense pressure, with continuing Western sanctions exacerbated by the recent four-year low in oil prices that has sharply reduced Russia’s budget revenue, deepening its reliance on trade with China.

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U.S. seeks a wedge

Trump officials have been quite open about their efforts to undermine Russia-China ties: Trump said in October that he had to “un-unite” Russia and China “and I think I can do that.” He repeated to a Fox News interviewer in March that “you don’t want Russia and China to get together.”

Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, told the Munich Security Conference in February that the U.S. had to “break” Russia and China apart and separate Russia from allies such as Iran and North Korea.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told right-wing outlet Breitbart News in February that the plan was to “dilute ties” between Moscow and Beijing.

Analysts say it remains unlikely.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. war on the international trading system “made Beijing more likely, not less, to strengthen its ties with Moscow.”

The Trump administration’s recent outreach to Russia, including two phone calls between Trump and Putin and four meetings with Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, comes amid the steady pace of contacts between the Chinese and Russian leaders. Xi has spoken to Putin twice this year, on Jan. 21 and Feb. 24, and the two men met in person three times last year.

Xi’s visit is of immense symbolic importance to Putin as he tries to link the struggle against the Nazis in World War II to his current war against Ukraine. In contrast to past years, when the parade has been a subdued affair, Friday’s event is expected to be massive.

“We will prepare a good and eventful program,” Putin said last month. “I hope this will not only be related to the Chinese president’s participation in the celebration ceremonies but will also be his special visit. He will be our principal guest.” The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Honor Guard will also take part in the parade, in its third appearance, following 2015 and 2020.

Putin is hosting the leaders of at least two dozen countries at the parade, including Brazil, Slovakia and Serbia, for the first time since his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In return, Putin is to visit Beijing in September for events marking Japan’s World War II surrender.

Ever since the announcement of China and Russia’s “no limits” partnership, just days before the invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has tried to strike a balance of backing Moscow without actively supporting the war. But trade with China reaching $237 billion in 2024 has helped bankroll Moscow’s war machine as Russia has exported oil and gas to China and imported Chinese cars, electronics, machinery and materials crucial to war efforts.

China has stopped short of sending lethal weapons and continually calls for peace talks involving “all stakeholders,” including the European Union.

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Common cause, different approaches

Russia and China have long shared common cause in curbing U.S. global power, but their goals and methods differ. Putin is willing to tear down the global order, while Beijing seeks to modify global institutions to better suit its autocratic approach.

“China itself does not want to destroy the rules-based system; it mainly wants to be a free rider and modify the rules to its interests,” Kennedy said.

“But by aligning with a country that does want to destroy the international order,” he said, referring to Russia, “it has set itself directly against the European Union and the West more generally, making long-term tensions much harder to avoid.”

The potential for closer U.S. ties does not appear to have given Putin substantially greater leverage with China, according to analysts, with Russia very much still the dependent junior partner for the foreseeable future.

“The bottom line is that Russia will remain critically dependent on China, that this dependence will still be asymmetrical,” said Alexander Gabuev, Russia and China expert and director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

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Areas of tension

There are some limits to the Russia-China no-limits partnership, according to analysts, with some areas of potential tension between the two countries.

Beijing is wary of the escalating defense cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which has sent about 12,000 troops to the war in Ukraine.

“That’s China’s bailiwick or backyard, and they don’t want other powers exercising influence over North Korea,” McGregor said. He added that China also doesn’t want North Korea getting assistance in accelerating its nuclear or missile program. “That’s not in China’s interest either, and that seems to be precisely what’s happening.”

For Russia, there is irritation that a massive gas pipeline project from Russia to China, the Power of Siberia 2, remains on hold. With Europe largely closed to its gas exports since the war in Ukraine, a crucial plank in Moscow’s hopes of replacing these losses is exports to China.

“To be honest, in the past three years, Sino-Russian cooperation has not reached the level that Russia had hoped for, and there are definitely some voices in Russia expressing this view,” said Wan Qingsong, a research fellow at the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University, adding that Xi’s visit is an opportunity “to deal with these problems.”

“The relationship between major powers is going through a major reshuffle right now. So for China and Russia, [the question is] how to reduce the impact of the shock waves caused by Trump,” he said.

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Pei-Lin Wu contributed to this report.