Soviet-era spacecraft once bound for Venus expected to crash to Earth in May
Part of a spacecraft that launched in 1972 and has been orbiting Earth for 53 years is due to reenter Earth’s atmosphere in the next two weeks and could crash to the ground intact, scientists say.
The 1,100-pound module, known as Kosmos 482, was part of a craft initially bound for Venus when it launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in the then-Soviet Union in March 1972, NASA said in a statement Friday.
Now it is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere sometime between May 7 and May 13 in an event that is being closely watched by scientists.
Experts believe the module could crash anywhere between the latitudes of 52 degrees north and south of the equator, covering an area from Quebec to Patagonia. They said it is highly unlikely — but not impossible — that it could hit someone.
“It should be visible as a bright fireball when it reenters the atmosphere,” David Williams, head of NASA’s Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, told The Washington Post in an email, adding that it is difficult to predict whether it will be recoverable, given that it “wasn’t designed for a hard landing.”
“I could imagine that, if parts of it can be recovered, it will be a unique scientific opportunity to examine the very long-term effects of the space environment (radiation, micrometeorites, solar wind particles) on a spacecraft,” he wrote.
The European Space Agency said the landing module is “highly likely” to reach Earth’s surface in one piece.
“The 495 kg lander was made to withstand the extremely harsh conditions of Venus’ hostile atmosphere and designed to 300 Gs of acceleration and 100 atmospheres of pressure,” it said in a statement to The Post on Friday.
1972 mission bound for Venus
Kosmos 482 was a sister mission to the Venera 8 atmospheric probe that launched four days earlier in March 1972 with an identical design and goal, according to NASA.
Yet while Venera 8 successfully landed on Venus in July 1972 and survived 50 minutes on the surface, the later mission failed and the craft separated into several pieces.
Some of these remained in low Earth orbit and broke down within 48 hours, while others went into a higher orbit but did not gain enough speed to reach Venus, NASA said.
The object scientists are anticipating reentering the Earth’s atmosphere in the next two weeks is thought to be the final missing piece of the craft, the landing module. Other pieces are believed to have reentered Earth’s atmosphere in the early 1980s, according to a 2022 article in the Space Review by Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in optical space situational awareness at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands.
Langbroek predicts a narrower window of May 9-10 for the “uncontrolled reentry,” but factors such as the object’s trajectory, age and solar activity in the coming days will affect this, he wrote in a blog post last updated Thursday. Scientists at NASA and the ESA expect details about the timing and location to become clearer as the reentry point becomes closer.
Langbroek said the module’s titanium shell could protect it, but he’s doubtful the parachute it contains will work after more than 50 years in orbit.
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said in an April blog post that he is “moderately confident” that the object is the Kosmos 482 landing module. He expects it to have “the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone.”
“The vehicle is dense but inert and has no nuclear materials,” he said. “No need for major concern, but you wouldn’t want it bashing you on the head.”