A series of tornadoes tore through Texas, even when none were predicted

BURKBURNETT, Texas — A family of strong tornadoes tore through areas south of Killeen, Texas, on Thursday, leading to swaths of destruction — all on a day when no tornadoes were predicted to occur.

At least three tornadoes, probably all possessing winds greater than 120 mph, touched down near Briggs, a town in eastern Burnet County south of Killeen. Five homes were damaged along County Road 223, and one driver was reported injured. The National Weather Service in the Austin-San Antonio area planned to survey the damage Friday.

Copperas Cove, on the extreme west side of Killeen, also reported hail to 4.5 inches in diameter — roughly the size of a grapefruit. Had the storm been shifted just five miles east-northeast, the damage could have been much more significant. Hail is by far the most expensive thunderstorm hazard in Texas and causes orders of magnitude more financial loss than tornadoes annually.

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Storm system moving east

The same parent storm system that drove these tornadoes is shifting east Friday, with an enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risk of severe weather from Texas to central Kentucky. It includes Houston; Austin; San Antonio; Jackson, Mississippi; Birmingham, Alabama; and Lexington, Kentucky.

The main concern will be damaging straight-line winds, though large hail could be a problem, especially in Texas.

The storms are forming along a slow-moving cold front being dragged southeast by low pressure over the Great Lakes. The front is impinging on warm, humid air and kicking up that moisture to form storms. With jet stream winds blowing overhead, it’s possible a few storms will contain damaging gusts.

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The Thursday tornadoes

The first tornado touched down about 4:28 p.m. near Kempner on the west side of Killeen. While the parent storm was slowly drifting east, the tornado meandered south-southeast. It reached its widest — perhaps close to a quarter-mile in diameter — about 4:42 p.m., then exhibited a dramatic and spectacular rope-out between 4:45 and 4:54 p.m.

The rope-out phases lasted an unusually long time, but that’s expected in environments such as Thursday’s. Ordinarily, the bulk of the spin is due to changing winds at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, but Thursday’s setup was a bit atypical — it was the result of robust overturning, or horizontal spin, close to the ground. Storms ingested that spin and tilted it vertically. But that meant any tornadic circulations could linger near the ground for an extended period by feeding off that spin — even after the parent storm’s rotation had reshuffled or weakened.

A second tornado touched down about 5:09 p.m. and lasted until about 5:23 p.m. while passing precariously close to Briggs. It appears to have slipped just east of Route 183. We watched as the tornado closed up and roped out. In photos, one can see a prominent slice of cool, dry air wrap around the circulation from the west, carve out a clearing, tighten the spin and eventually strangle it. Then the tornado disappeared.

Moments later, a new tornado formed — and lasted several minutes before dissipating.

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Did forecasters see it coming?

Until late Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service was forecasting an approximately zero percent risk of tornadoes. Storm chasers and meteorologists alike were concerned by sunrise that one or two lone, discrete rotating supercells would form near Killeen and pose a hail, wind and tornado threat. High-resolution computer models were consistent in depicting a rotating thunderstorm forming about 3 p.m., and machine learning models placed a bull’s eye around Killeen.

But the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center hadn’t issued any risk category. Eventually, the service added a slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk of large, damaging hail but never predicted tornadoes.

Even the local National Weather Service office for Austin-San Antonio seemingly missed the tornado threat. Its midafternoon forecast discussion from Thursday at 3:04 p.m. did not include the word “tornado.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the forecasts.

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Were the ingredients there?

From a meteorological standpoint, the tornado event was about as classic as it gets in Texas. While there wasn’t much large-scale turning of the winds with height — which would promote rotating thunderstorms — there were other key features that should have been alarming.

For starters, there was a leftover outflow boundary. That marked the leading edge of the cool air exhaust from Wednesday’s storms. That boundary was the source of low-level spin. And if a storm could anchor to and gobble up that spin, it could stretch it into tornadoes.

Ahead of the storms, some meteorologists were discussing similar past events, like what happened in Jarrell, Texas, on May 27, 1997, or north of Abilene on May 2, 2024.

Just two weeks ago, another boundary-induced tornado happened near Sterling City, Texas; the Weather Service didn’t issue a warning until after touchdown.

Even more of a red flag was an extreme amount of instability, or thunderstorm fuel. A juiced-up atmosphere allowed thunderstorms to explode about 3 p.m., with clouds blossoming from nothing to nearly 60,000 feet tall in 45 minutes.

There was also an obvious dry-line bulge, or a bulge of dry air nudging its way into a moist air mass over Killeen. That bulge helped enhanced low-level spin by pulling surface winds more out of the east.

Added together, it was a classic environment for strong tornadoes — and that’s exactly what happened.