Who’s on third? The Cubs’ best option may still wind up being Matt Shaw

At some point the Cubs are expected to recall Matt Shaw from Triple-A Iowa and reinstall him as their everyday third baseman. That optimistic outlook reflects the organization’s belief in its 2023 first-round pick. It’s also the reality of the situation — the current alternatives do not appear to be all that compelling.

One month into the season, the first-place Cubs have captured the top end of their projections for multiple hitters and the offense as a whole. That was apparent in Thursday’s 8-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, as Dansby Swanson, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki hit home runs off Paul Skenes in the fifth inning to propel Chicago to another series win.

The one unresolved spot, though, remains third base, which is not at all surprising. That clear need drove the decision to pursue Alex Bregman, who ultimately chose the Boston Red Sox during spring training, signing a three-year, $120 million contract that includes opt-out clauses and a substantial amount of deferred money.

Bregman, an All-Star third baseman and a Gold Glove defender, is hitting .328 with 7 home runs, 24 RBI and a .985 OPS through his first 31 games with the Red Sox. That’s only a snapshot of Bregman’s hot start, which may not be sustainable.

The bigger picture, however, shows that the Cubs have used 13 starting third basemen since last year’s Opening Day. In addition to reinforcing the pitching staff, Jed Hoyer’s front office will explore all options at third base leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

The broader issue is that the Cubs may have difficulties finding an upgrade. Across the majors, third base is not a position teeming with solid two-way players, and it is too early to tell how many clubs will be aggressive sellers at the trade deadline.

By WAR (FanGraphs), Cubs third basemen are ranked 25th in baseball. Purely on offense, they’re 20th with an 80 wRC+. That’s certainly not great, but it’s also not the type of bottom-of-the-league production the club was getting early last season from catcher and center field.

The most productive third basemen in the game are playing for obvious contenders or teams that are unlikely to consider selling or are doubtful on matching up with the Cubs. Nolan Arenado, for example, was a player the Cubs inquired about during spring training, only to be quickly informed that the St. Louis Cardinals were not interested in trading an All-Star within the division to a historic rival.

The Cubs were simply doing due diligence in that case, but the landscape hasn’t changed that much since then. The Cardinals helping push the Cubs over the edge on their way to October just doesn’t seem to be a likely scenario.

Most realistic options wouldn’t be significant upgrades over solid role players such as Jon Berti or Nicky Lopez. The truth is that offensive production from third basemen is nearing an all-time low. Entering play on Thursday, third basemen had a 93 wRC+. That is the second-lowest mark in baseball behind second basemen.

That 93 wRC+ at the position would be the third-lowest mark for third basemen since 1950. In fact, since 2021, only the 2022 season wouldn’t rank among the bottom 10 seasons in offensive productivity over the last 75 years. In general, there seems to be a dearth of offensive talent at the position right now.

Yet, Bregman still remained a free agent in the middle of February.

After Bregman turned down their four-year, $115 million offer, the Cubs handed the job to Shaw, who had a slower, limited start to spring training due to an oblique injury. Shaw, the Opening Day third baseman in Tokyo, came into the season with zero major-league at-bats and only 35 games of Triple-A experience on his resume.

In 68 plate appearances, Shaw produced a .172 batting average and a .535 OPS. By April 15, the Cubs decided to option him to Iowa for a mental break and the chance to readjust his stance and swing.

“This is not a place for a young player to tinker,” Hoyer said. “We want him to be our third baseman. We want him to be back up here. But he needs to go work on some stuff now and reset. Hopefully, he can do that. In the meantime, we’ll probably have a little bit of a revolving door there for a bit while we play matchups. I would love it if one of these guys would get hot and grab more of the playing time.”

Patience is in short supply this year in Chicago, where the Cubs have not hosted a playoff game since 2020 and Hoyer is working through the final year of his contract. Cubs manager Craig Counsell was not interested in giving Shaw the longer runway that he provided last year for Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose plus speed and elite defense in center field could not be easily replaced by anyone else on the roster.

For Shaw, the organization’s decision was not shocking.

“I understand you have to perform to play in the big leagues,” Shaw told Des Moines Register reporter Tommy Birch. “If they feel like getting some consistent at-bats (after) the shortened spring is going to be something that helps our team in the coming months — and if I’m a player who’s in a rhythm for our squad — then I think that’s a good thing.

“It’s just the nature of baseball. Guys move up, move down. It’s definitely a learning process.”

All seven players who started a game at third base for the Cubs last season are no longer in the organization. Christopher Morel was packaged in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Isaac Paredes, who was subsequently moved to the Houston Astros in the Tucker deal. Patrick Wisdom, David Bote, Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobuoni and Luis Vázquez were each designated for assignment or non-tendered.

By May 1 this season, the Cubs had already started six players at third base. After Chicago re-signed Lopez and designated Gage Workman for assignment last week, Counsell said: “It doesn’t change the nature of third base here. You’re going to see multiple third basemen in the game on a day-to-day basis.”

In other words, the Cubs will use a platoon system, make late-game substitutions for defense, look for pinch-hit opportunities and utilize Berti’s speed in certain situations. Then hope that something clicks at Triple-A for Shaw, so that he can resume his learning curve against the best pitching in the world.

“Essentially, with this move we’re going to play people with experience over there a little more,” Counsell said. “The goal, still, is to get Matt Shaw back playing that position. But you need some time for that. So we’ll kind of let that play out. The short term is, these are our guys. Intermediate, we’re hoping Matt Shaw turns into that guy.”

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