‘A spiral effect’: 40% service cuts estimated if Metra, Pace, CTA veer over the fiscal cliff
More than 50% of BNSF trains canceled. Half of the 'L' shut down. No Pace weekend service.
Transit leaders laid out a worst-case scenario of 40% service cuts they say could occur if the Illinois General Assembly fails to provide relief from a $770 million budget shortfall in 2026, when federal COVID-19 aid dries up.
“This isn’t just a transit crisis, it’s a regional emergency,” Regional Transportation Authority Executive Director Leanne Redden said Thursday.
“It’s all going to depend on what the legislature does … in the next 75 days,” Metra Executive Director Jim Derwinski said Wednesday. If there’s no action, “there’s going to be a spiral effect. The more you raise prices, the more you reduce service, the less people use the system.
“And it’s not just Metra; it’s Pace and CTA as well.”
The fallout could hurt the regional economy, with nearly 3,000 transit employee layoffs anticipated, and one in five workers in Chicago unable to use transit to reach their jobs, officials said.
COVID-19 decimated ridership on buses and trains. The agencies have gradually seen commuters return but passenger revenues are down compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“If we’re not successful in working with our legislative partners on this, these are very real scenarios that will happen beginning in 2026,” Redden said. “It’s not something we want to work toward, but it’s very important people understand that very harsh reality.”
The RTA on Friday released details about service reductions that could happen with no funding assist. Here are some examples:
• Metra would end early morning and late evening trains. Weekday trains would shrink to one train per hour and two per hour on weekends.
That would mean the commuter railroad’s busiest route, the BNSF Line, reduces its Monday to Friday daily 91 trains by over half, the RTA said.
• Pace would cease weekend bus service. Late-night service would end on 62 routes, seriously impacting late-shift workers. Wait times for buses would increase from 30 to 60 minutes.
• The Chicago Transit Authority would halt service on all or part of four of its eight lines. Over 50 train stations could close or experience reduced service.
Out of 127 bus routes, 74 would be eliminated, affecting about 500,000 Chicagoans.
• Paratransit for riders with disabilities operated by Pace would scale back by 66% on weekends.
The RTA is seeking an increase in funding of $1.5 billion a year. Officials say that would expand the frequency of buses and trains across the region, and result in more riders and improved safety.
But many state lawmakers have insisted that governance reforms come first before any financial rescue. Various proposals are pending in the General Assembly that include merging the four entities to create a superagency or keeping Metra, Pace and the CTA intact but strengthening the RTA’s oversight powers.
State Rep. Marty Moylan of Des Plaines, a Democrat who chairs the House Transportation Committee on Regulation, Roads and Bridges, said he wants answers from the agencies regarding overtime, lobbyist costs and policing.
“I’m not going to give them a dime until we get some reforms,” Moylan said. “If they’re going to threaten me with layoffs, they can lay off starting from the top.”