Spooked by Trump and Putin, Europe rushes to rearm

BRUSSELS — The European Union, an entity that has long cast itself as a peace and trade project, is in crisis talks Thursday focused on defending itself.

Along with the specter of a belligerent Moscow, President Donald Trump’s sudden redrawing of alliances and withdrawal of support for Ukraine are driving Europeans to fast-track plans to bolster their militaries, upgrade their arsenals — and, ultimately, to curb their dependence on the United States.

Among the EU leaders meeting in Brussels, there’s a rallying cry that Europe needs to embark on a military buildup in a way it hasn’t in decades.

The E.U.’s executive branch has unveiled a proposal to unlock hundreds of billions in extra defense spending in the coming years, while Germany is starting a big shift away from controls limiting borrowing. Meanwhile, France is floating the possibility of expanding its nuclear deterrent to cover its European allies.

The continent’s leaders are debating the plans for loans and looser budget rules that would allow countries to expand manufacturing and joint purchase weapons systems. They’re also deliberating on military aid for Kyiv, how a ceasefire deal could take shape and how they might back it.

“I want to believe the U.S. will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case,” French President Emmanuel Macron told his country ahead of the summit. “The future of Europe must not be decided in Washington or Moscow.”

A military revival in Europe won’t be easy or cheap.

The 27-nation bloc was not built for Trump’s battering ram of decisions, and it is playing catch up with a more militarized, belligerent world.

“The EU was built for peacetime,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs and a former EU foreign policy adviser. “There was no need for speed but rather this kind of slow, careful construction of shared interests and identities and all the rest of it.”

In such “dramatic moments” though, “what you tend to think of as being technically impossible is often not,” she said.

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An era of rearmament

The European Commission’s sweeping though still blurry proposal features a 150-billion-euro loan program for investments including in air and missile defense, artillery and drones. It’s based on a provision for exceptional circumstances.

“Listen, there is no point in complaining about the new reality, we must learn to deal with it,” Polish President Donald Tusk said Thursday.

Decisions about hiking defense spending will eventually be up to EU states, and public finances are already strained in key economies.

The EU loves rules but is ready to relax some for defense spending: The plan includes activating an “escape clause” allowing some divergence from strict deficit rules. This could let countries spend more without making painful cuts elsewhere, although at the risk of widening deficits. The plans also involve repurposing existing funds intended for the bloc’s poorer regions, and giving the European Investment Bank more leeway to fund defense projects.

European officials described it as a starting point. “Is this the end of the story? No,” one said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share internal deliberations. “But this is indeed the turning of a page.”

At the core is the question of how much Europe can defend itself with less U.S. help.

The continent’s leaders expected pressure from the Trump administration to boost defense spending, and some may hope that doing so keeps Washington on board. But it’s another thing to brace for a U.S. realignment toward Russia, said Tocci. They often got criticism for not better planning for U.S. disengagement, but they’re grappling with a “radically different” dynamic today.

“It’s wise to assume and plan for the worst case scenario,” she added. “The worst case is one in which the U.S. cannot be persuaded to be nice to us or even to ignore us. It is one in which the U.S. is out there to undermine us.”

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Military aid for Ukraine

The U.S. pause of military aid for Kyiv only added to the urgency, said Bronwen Maddox, director of the London-based Chatham House. “It is a huge turning point,” she said. “It tells Europe that you may as well be on your own.”

A French-British plan to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a negotiated settlement is gaining some traction, but remains divisive, and U.S. support is uncertain.

The EU defense plan is vague about how far it could go to aiding Ukraine, as Kyiv’s backers push for using part of the funds to bolster Ukrainian capabilities. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday that the proposal would allow for investing in Ukraine’s defense industry or procuring military equipment for Kyiv.

A bid to give Ukraine a separate, new military aid package is unlikely to be finalized on Thursday, two European diplomats said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. More than the defense plans, that push has been thorny inside the bloc’s halls, where unanimity requirements can slow decisions.

The bloc is straining to maintain a united voice on Ukraine: Kremlin-friendly Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, applauding Trump’s approach, has opposed promises to give Ukraine leverage as Washington seeks to negotiate with Russia to halt the conflict.

Still, turning proposals to rearm Europe into reality will also run up against diverging national interests and economic pressures. Leaders are trying to rally weary populations to redirect their funds to weapons, which will be trickier in countries farther from the conflict where military spending is relatively lower and deficits are high.

Moves to both hike European defense spending and arm Ukraine could strain European efforts, especially if Washington further turns on Kyiv.

Some diplomats also point to what they see as a double-edged sword from a Trump administration that calls on Europeans to be more independent, but wants them to buy more U.S. weapons.

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Bending the rules

There’s growing momentum to pull together with countries outside the EU on defense, including Britain, Norway and Turkey, to circumvent features of the bloc that hobble decision-making. One idea on the table is the creation of a rearmament bank similar to the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development created after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Also outside the EU format, countries are maneuvering to find money at home, and the Trump effect has pushed many to shift long-held positions.

In Germany, the clash between Trump and Kyiv, followed by the U.S. suspension of Ukraine aid, fueled a swift rethink of the country’s tightly drawn purse strings just days after a national election.

Presumptive chancellor Friedrich Merz and the parties most likely to form Germany’s next government unveiled an agreement to reinforce defense by reforming Germany’s constitutionally enshrined debt brake. The proposal — a shift from the country’s conservative approach to borrowing — would exempt defense spending above 1% of gross domestic product from the debt-brake restrictions.

“The political developments in Europe and the world are evolving faster than we anticipated just a week ago,” Merz said in announcing the proposal. “‘Whatever it takes’ must now also apply to our defense.”

In France, some officials have floated taxing the rich for a defense boost. Macron said tough choices will have to be made to mobilize private and public funds, though he promised no tax hikes.

“Whatever happens,” he said in his national address Wednesday night, “we need to better equip ourselves.”

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Kate Brady in Berlin and Leo Sands in London contributed.