Cubs could use another big move, but Bregman probably not the answer
One question floating around the start of spring training: Do the Cubs need another significant move to solidify their chances of making the playoffs?
And obviously, most of the recent buzz has been focused on Houston third baseman Alex Bregman, who has been lingering on the free-agent market.
The feeling here is, yes, the Cubs probably need more help. But Bregman is far from a slam dunk addition. Technically, on a one-year contract, Bregman would be a slam dunk, but that's not happening, most likely.
The Cubs have reportedly offered a shorter-term deal with options, similar to what they gave Cody Bellinger last year. Both Bregman and Bellinger are clients of Scott Boras, who is notorious for letting negotiations drag out. There were also reports Bregman, 30, is seeking a six- or seven-year deal.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer wouldn't talk about Bregman specifically when he met with reporters Sunday, but did discuss dealing with rumors and fan expectations.
“The reason we are sitting here in the first place is because baseball's an awesome fan sport,” Hoyer said. “People care so much about the Cubs, it's why I like working here. That's just the nature of it.
“People deeply care about us and they want us to be a really good team, they want to talk about it and they want to think about different possibilities, and that leads to a lot of rumors. You can't have a rabid fan base without having that.”
Regarding Bregman, the first thing that jumps out about him is, like Bellinger, his best season occurred in 2019. Since 2021, Bregman ranks 27th in weighted runs created-plus (according to fangraphs.com) and 33rd in OPS. He's a very good player but hasn't been among the elite hitters in MLB in six years. So it's easy to see why teams might be reluctant to go six or seven years.
One of the Cubs' basic problems last season is they had four position players making more than $20 million (Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki), and none of them could bust the Cubs out of a horrendous May-June hitting slump.
Eventually, Suzuki's numbers turned out to be pretty good, but the Cubs don't need another big contract for a player who did his best work six years ago.
Hoyer talked about the Cubs playing above expectations in 2023, then failing to do so last year. Bellinger's OPS dropping from .881 to .751 might have been the biggest reason. In that case, the Cubs' short-term contract with options backfired. They were fortunate to be able to send Bellinger to the Yankees.
One way Bregman could work is if Hoyer thinks Nico Hoerner can bring back something useful in a trade. Then the Cubs could put Matt Shaw at second base and Bregman at third, in theory. But Bregman at $30 million per season is a bad idea.
Hoyer mentioned Shaw on Sunday, saying: “I don't think we're in the world of anointing a rookie and just giving him a job. I think he has to win a job.”
For the Cubs, this looks like a year to wait and see exactly what they have before making the next move. Too many guys in the projected lineup — Shaw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Miguel Amaya — have a wide range of projected outcomes. Shaw has yet to make his major-league debut and third base may not be the right fit defensively. Crow-Armstrong and Amaya slid between awful and outstanding at the plate last season.
Will the Padres make pitcher Dylan Cease available at some point? The Cubs have the prospects to be a top contender if he is available, and that would right one of the wrongs in recent team history. Hoyer would surely love to reunite the Cubs' sixth-round pick in 2014 with the fifth-rounder in the same draft, putting Cease and Justin Steele at the top of the rotation.
Here's a crazy idea: What if Toronto makes Valdimir Guerrero Jr. available as he moves closer to free agency?
In theory, the Cubs could use Suzuki and Busch to anchor a trade package, then Guerrero and Kyle Tucker would give them two elite hitters who are worth a hefty contract. On the fangraphs.com list of OPS leaders since 2021, Tucker and Guerrero rank Nos. 8 and 9, just behind the Dodgers' Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at Nos. 6 and 7.
Maybe Bregman will make a decision soon, but the Cubs can feel free to take their time before the Next Big Move.