O’Donnell: KC dancers and Philly brutes will all lead to an illogical outcome
SO TODAY IT WILL BE PATRICK MAHOMES AND THE CHIEFS on this side and Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on that side.
America will watch — the darting red dancers vs. the midnight-green brutes — and then move on.
The Super Bowl remains the nation's premier midwinter main stage. Although, in a land of close to 360 million people, almost two-thirds won't be tuning in.
That suggests a country clearly divided in two: Those automatically mesmerized by the swift twists and high-priced accoutrement of pro football, and a whole lot of others who simply don't give a tweet.
SHARPEST TV ARCHIVISTS WILL NOTE that it is 61 years to the minutes — Sunday night, Feb. 9, 1964 — when the Beatles first appeared on “The Ed Sullivan Show.” The Fab Four were live, billed moptop to schtick with such forgotten Sullivan timepieces as brassy Tessie O'Shea and the C-list comedy team of Mitzi McCall and Charlie Brill.
That landmark pop cultural date, it is said, helped push an America in deep mourning over the very public murder of a President 11 weeks prior toward an opening out of its overpowering grief.
Today, a different sort of political divide imposts the land. But the game will play on (Kickoff at about 5:37 p.m., Fox).
FOR CHICAGO BEARS FANS of a certain age or more sweeping franchise study, it would forever be the morning of Jan. 26, 1986.
The Bill Murray clock radio of “Groundhog's Day” would not eternally be playing “I Got You Babe.”
Instead, it would announce an approaching NFL kickoff. And then the Shufflin' Crew of Mike Ditka and Buddy Ryan would indeed once again go out on a New Orleans turf and hand Our Town a chunk of overwhelmingly dominant football theater for the ages.
Anyone want to argue the other side about that being the greatest single day in the history of the team and one of the most elevating games in the history of the league?
Has any afternoon ever made committed followers of the Halas chronicles feel more alive?
AFTER ALMOST SIX FULL DECADES of Super Bowls, it can be said with certainty that the big game's value is in the La-Z-Boy push of the remote-control holder.
Remember those 240 millions Americans who won't be viewing tonight.
Today's only guarantee is that someone will win.
Maybe it'll be the dancers. Maybe it'll be the brutes.
And a large TV audience will watch and then move on.
* * *
ANDREW BEYER OF THE WASHINGTON POST was one of the most important thoroughbred racing theorists of the 20th century.
In 1975 he released “Picking Winners,” probably the most revolutionary book ever written about gate-to-wire possibilities. Some of his gambling universals resonate to this day, crossing far beyond any local oval.
PERHAPS NONE IS MORE ENDURING than the selective employment of “the logic of illogic” in honing in on cashing a bet, whatever the game.
The underpinning is straightforward: Gather as much factual data as desired before closing in on a probable winner. Weigh all logical information. And then go another way, away from the logic.
Wager on a result to sustain the hidden “magic” of the game. (Bookmakers and legal sports gaming outfits thrive because of that hidden poof-whiz-splat devouring most sensible bets.)
BEYER'S THEOREM IS APPLICABLE to Super Bowl 59 because:
· Many in the mainstream public believe the lords of the NFL quite frequently deign Patrick Mahomes will win football games. He is 22-1 in his last 23 meaningful starts;
· Andy Reid's offenses overflow with devices to confound even the brightest defensive minds. Vic Fangio, the PHL defensive coordinator, is 0-8 lifetime vs. Mahomes and the Reid brigade. Six of those losses came when he was head coach in Denver and two more when he was DC in Miami. They remain huge neon signs that even he can't successfully scheme against KC;
· The Eagles are perceived as an extraordinarily strong outfit but one that is at its best playing with a lead. That makes the extended ground drives produced by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley even more effective — as long as PHL is in front later in games. They're not good candidates to stage a dramatic late-game rally. Three-and-outs in second halves are positively Kryptonite against a worthy foe;
· No QB currently in the NFL can close out victories like Mahomes. In that respect he mirrors Michael Jordan regarding instinctual peak competitive timing. During the Bulls championship years — especially the second three-peat — Jordan was astounding in knowing when to pull the close trigger.
SO AS KICKOFF APPROACHES, the Chiefs remain hovering as 1-point favorites. That number also means the point spread is irrelevant. Any speculator is merely trying to pick a winner.
Four essential outcomes loom: Chiefs close, Philly close, KC large (an arbitrary 6 points or more) or Eagles large.
Rational pickers would take the Chiefs close as the most likely outcome. Visions of a legacy-extending late winning drive engineered by Mahomes are rampant.
The same logic would suggest the Eagles by 6 points or more is the most illogical.
WITH ALL APPROPRIATE PROPS to the wisdom of Andrew Beyer, The Insouciant Pick for Super Bowl 59 is the Eagles large.
And for good measure, the MVP will be anyone on Philadelphia other than Jalen Hurts.
But that's why they call it gambling.
Jim O'Donnell's Sports and Media column appears each week on Sunday and Wednesday. Reach him at jimodonnelldh@yahoo.com. All communications may be considered for publication.