What will happen in the air, on roads and with public transit in 2025?

Who needs California Psychics when homegrown Illinois seers are ready to prognosticate about planes, trains and automobiles in 2025?

As is our In Transit tradition, transportation experts and professors Ian Savage, Joseph Schwieterman and P.S. Sriraj offer their predictions for the coming year.

Front of mind is a $771 million shortfall facing Metra, Pace and the CTA when federal COVID-19 aid runs out in 2026. Parallel to the funding crisis is a proposal by some lawmakers to merge the agencies into one supersized entity, the Metropolitan Mobility Authority.

“Last year, I cynically predicted that the taxpayers would ultimately be hit hard with little in the way of reform to address the financial problems at CTA, Metra and Pace,” said Northwestern University Professor Savage. “My prediction has not changed.”

He said to expect legislative activity and intense politicking in the first half of the year over the Metropolitan Mobility Authority or alternative legislation.

DePaul University Professor Schwieterman forecasts “announced schedule reductions by CTA, Metra and Pace due to the fiscal cliff will become a heated topic, resulting in much legislative wrangling in Springfield.”

And, University of Illinois Chicago Professor P.S. Sriraj contends a second option empowering the RTA will gain traction.

“I don’t think they will be able to muster enough support to eliminate the service boards,” said Sriraj, UIC’s Urban Transportation Center director.

He also noted that it might be time to reexamine fares, given that CTA rates have not been raised in years.

In the skies

“Drone activity around Chicago airports will worsen and disrupt airline arrivals and departures at particular times,” said Schwieterman, director of DePaul’s Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development.

Schwieterman also expects “passenger traffic at the busiest times will severely overload O'Hare terminals, creating pressure for the O’Hare 21 project to advance as quickly as possible.”

And, “a passenger airline will experiment with scheduled flights to a third Chicago airport, perhaps Gary-Chicago International or DuPage Airport,” Schwieterman said.

Economist Savage recommends “keeping a close eye on three carriers. American Airlines has underperformed financially relative to Delta and United in the full-service part of the industry since the pandemic. I wonder if any changes are on the horizon?

“In the middle market, Southwest Airlines is shedding some of its long-standing policies such as no assigned seating and limited premium seating. I think it is being squeezed on both sides by the full-service and the discount carriers and has ended up being rather schizophrenic about what type of carrier it wants to be.

“In the discount part of the market, I predict Spirit Airlines will survive its trip into bankruptcy but will end up as a smaller airline.”

On the waterways

Sriraj noted that recent federal grants will help modernize the Illinois International Port District and pay to rebuild the dock wall at the Iroquois Landing site, located at the mouth of the Calumet River in Chicago.

An improved dock wall will increase capacity for international shipments and containers, making the port competitive with ones along the St. Lawrence Seaway and Great Lakes, officials said in November.

“This is a big win for Chicago,” Sriraj said. “It has the potential to take a lot of the congestion out of the existing (road and rail) network and put it on the waterways.”

Trump and transportation

When President-elect Donald Trump takes office, “I predict that transportation is one area where not much will change,” Savage contended. “Building infrastructure tends to have bipartisan support. The current highway funding legislation, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, runs through September 2026.

“Initial proposals for the next highway bill will start to ramp up later in 2025. It is tempting to suspect that funding for new transit projects might be at risk, but there are plenty of growing cities in Red States that have transit needs.”

What else?

“FlixBus, Greyhound and Trailways will leave the Chicago Intercity Bus Terminal for a more modest facility, creating difficult questions about the government’s role in supporting intercity bus travel,” Schwieterman said.

And finally, “law enforcement agencies will pivot toward more rigorous speed limit enforcement, surprising motorists who had grown accustomed to lax enforcement,” he predicted.