Could Astros’ Tucker give Cubs lineup a needed lift?
All eyes, and maybe some webcams, have been focused on the swimming pool at the Dallas Hilton Anatole Hotel. But as of Thursday evening, as the MLB winter meetings came to a close, the Cubs had yet to make a splash.
Most of the chatter has focused on a trade for Houston outfielder Kyle Tucker, but it's complicated. How much should the Cubs give back, considering Tucker will be a free agent at the end of the 2025 season? Also, there's competition from teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Giants.
The Cubs' best chance to take a jump in the standings is to add slug to the lineup and depth to the bullpen. Does Tucker fit the bill? The answer is yes, most likely.
Last season he was limited to 78 games, missing about three months after fouling a pitch off his shin on June 3. In those 78 games he posted a .993 OPS with 23 home runs. If he kept that pace all season, Tucker would have placed third in MLB in OPS, behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, and slightly ahead of Juan Soto.
The left-handed hitting Tucker, 27, became a full-time major leaguer in 2021 and produced an .800-plus OPS every season since, receiving MVP votes in three of the four years. Seiya Suzuki was the Cubs' OPS leader this season at .848. So yes, Tucker would be a nice addition to the lineup.
Multiple baseball insiders have suggested Tucker is likely to be traded by Houston, which has an eye on future payroll; and some have named the Cubs as the top contender. At the same time, there are reasons why this ordeal might drag on for a few weeks.
Concern No. 1: How much should the Cubs give up in return?
The Cubs have been stockpiling trade assets, so this is a good time to make a run at a player like Tucker. To this point, there's been no indication Toronto is willing to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr., another big bat who becomes a free agent after next season.
Jon Heyman from the New York Post has been talking and tweeting about Suzuki and Isaac Paredes being potential trade pieces, with the Astros looking for the Cubs to add one of their two recent first-round picks, Matt Shaw or Cam Smith.
Now, this seems like a steep price to pay for a player who could walk away as a free agent after one season. There's little chance Tucker would agree to an extension before testing the open market, considering the haul Soto just got from the Mets.
Trade machine tools suggest an offer of Paredes, Owen Caissie, Jordan Wicks and another prospect would be a fair deal for Tucker. The thing is, there's competition. Rumors have the Yankees willing to give up AL rookie of the year pitcher Luis Gil, and the Phillies could offer third baseman Alec Bohm.
Suzuki has a no-trade clause, so he'd have to agree to any deal. And he was the Cubs' best hitter, so the lineup might still lack lumber if Suzuki leaves. In an ideal Cubs world, they'd add some high-priced sluggers, and use Shaw and Smith as low-cost infielders. Cubs president Jed Hoyer will have to thread the needle here to get a trade that makes sense, while beating out the competition.
Concern No. 2: Where does Tucker play?
As last season ended, the Cubs were using Cody Bellinger in right, Suzuki at DH and Michael Busch at first base. So one of those three needs to move out if the Cubs add Tucker. Maybe that's why Suzuki has been mentioned in the Houston rumors.
But there's also chatter about a Bellinger trade to the Yankees. Coming off a mediocre performance in 2024, Bellinger's contract is pretty rough since it could total $52 million over the next two years. There's been talk the Yankees want the Cubs to pay a big chunk of this year's salary, which is probably the only way they'll be able to move him.
The Yankees might be the one destination that makes sense for Bellinger, since they have the short porch in right field that helps left-handed hitters, and they lost both Soto and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. In a perfect Cubs world, they send Bellinger to New York and acquire Tucker without giving up Suzuki, but that may not be possible.
Concern No. 3: Could they even re-sign Tucker?
This is a great unknown, but it will surely cost a ton since Soto just got $765 million from the Mets. Tucker isn't likely to match that number, but he has the 11th-best OPS since 2021, which puts him in a group with guys like Guerrero Jr., Mookie Betts and Corey Seager. It feels like $35 million over 10 years is the floor for a new Tucker deal, and that might be way low.
Maybe the Cubs should just wait it out and make a run at Tucker or Guerrero in free agency. The Cubs should be in a position to dole out a few big salaries, so if they trade Suzuki for Tucker and are able to move Bellinger, maybe the next move is to make a run at free agent first baseman Pete Alonso from the Mets.
There's plenty of flexibility in the organization. Shaw could play second or third, in theory, so trading Smith, putting Shaw at third and keeping Nico Hoerner at second base could work.
Hoerner to Seattle for a pitcher was another recent rumor, which seems to have quieted down. The Cubs could replace Ian Happ with Caissie in two years and pick up some salary relief.
Most Cubs fans would agree something needs to happen this winter, so stay tuned.