What do analytics say about Bears’ loss to Green Bay?
Bears offensive coordinator Thomas Brown made some notable changes in his first week in charge of the offense. He made life easier on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
That appears to have led to a more efficient offense during Sunday’s 20-19 loss to Green Bay at Soldier Field. That’s especially notable because the Packers’ defense was no walk in the park. The Packers ranked in the top 10 in numerous defensive categories.
Here’s a look at what the Bears did differently Sunday.
A quick release
Brown had Williams releasing the ball much more quickly. Williams released on average in 2.42 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That was his fastest mark of the season.
A combination of a quick release and a healthier offensive line led to fewer hits on the quarterback. Williams faced only eight pressures. The Packers’ 20.5% pressure rate was the lowest by a Bears’ opponent all season. It resulted in only three sacks.
Brown schemed short, quick routes for Williams’ targets. Williams completed 19 of his 22 pass attempts that were fewer than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He was 5 of 6 on passes behind the line of scrimmage. A week earlier against New England, Williams attempted only one pass behind the line of scrimmage.
A combination of the short passing game and a successful run game seemed to open things up in the deeper areas too. Against New England, Williams didn’t complete a single pass beyond 10 yards down field. He was 0 of 5 on passes that went 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Against Green Bay, he was 4 of 9 for 74 yards on passes that went 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
QB on the run
The rookie quarterback was highly efficient running with the football. He ran for 70 yards on nine carries.
Williams’ “expected points added” as a runner was the second-highest of any NFL player in Week 11 (pending “Monday Night Football”), behind only New Orleans tight end Taysom Hill.
Williams’ EPA per rush was plus-9.7. Hill, who rushed for 19.7 yards per carry, was plus-12.8. Williams ran for 20 more yards than expected, per Next Gen Stats’ models.
Williams and Hill recorded two of the three most dominant single-game performances of the NFL season, in terms of EPA per rush. The other was Tampa Bay running back Sean Tucker’s Week 6 performance, when he notched a plus-10.2 EPA per rush while running for 136 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against New Orleans.
Do a few extra yards matter?
Head coach Matt Eberflus on Monday stood by his decision to run out the final 30 seconds before sending out kicker Cairo Santos for a 46-yard try to win the game. Eberflus elected not to try to gain a few more yards. Speaking on Monday, he doubled down on that decision.
He had confidence in Santos to nail the 46-yard try. Rightfully so. Santos is the most accurate field goal kicker in Bears history. His 89.4% career field goal mark is four percentage points better than Robbie Gould’s 85.4% mark.
Still, a few yards might have made a difference. Since returning to the Bears in 2020, Santos is 70 of 70 on field goal tries inside the 40-yard line. It’s worth pointing out that he has missed 10 of his 147 extra point attempts, which are the equivalent of a 33-yard field goal.
In that same time span, Santos is 36 of 44 on kicks from 40 to 49 yards (including Sunday’s block). He’s 20 of 26 on kicks from 50 yards and beyond.
It’s fair to wonder if a few more yards would’ve made a difference, but there’s also no guarantee the Bears would have gained yards if they ran one more play. It’s always tougher when the defense knows what an offense is thinking.
Lots of losing
Sunday marked the Bears’ fourth consecutive loss. The Bears have had a losing streak of at least four games in every season since 2018. That includes the final three years under Matt Nagy and all three seasons under Eberflus.
Eberflus is now 14-30 as the head coach of the Bears. The Bears are 5-17 in games decided by one possession (eight points or less) under Eberflus.