What do analytics say about Bears’ brutal loss to New England?

Nine sacks.

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams took nine sacks Sunday against New England. That was a Patriots defense with 16 total sacks in their first nine games. That’s fewer than two per game.

That’s not good.

After being sacked 16 times over the past two games, Williams now leads the NFL with 38 total sacks (all stats and rankings in this article are before “Monday Night Football”). In head coach Matt Eberflus’ first season in Chicago, Justin Fields led NFL quarterbacks with 55 sacks (a Bears record). Williams might threaten that number if he can stay healthy the rest of the season.

This week, the overall numbers look pretty awful.

No time

Looking at the numbers, this looks like a total organizational failure. The quarterback didn’t play well. The offensive line didn’t protect him. The wide receivers weren’t open. The numbers bear that out.

Williams’ time to throw in Week 10 was 2.79 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This metric had steadily been going up in recent weeks. On Sunday, it plummeted.

The Bears were playing without their starting offensive tackles. They lost their starting left guard mid-game. By the second half, they were playing with only one starter from Week 1. Not many offenses can overcome attrition like that.

Williams’ 2.79 seconds to throw — which measures how long it takes the QB to throw the football or get sacked — was his third-shortest of the season, behind only Weeks 1 and 2.

With the offensive line in tatters, the Patriots blitzed on 48.8% of dropbacks. It was the highest blitz rate Williams has dealt with so far. That led to QB pressures on 43.9% of dropbacks, which was only his fifth-worst game in that metric. The median QB pressure rate right now across the league is just over 35%. Williams has faced more pressure than that in six of nine games.

Some fans might argue Williams is holding on to the football too long — and on some specific plays that might be true — but overall the problem on Sunday was, in fact, a lack of time to throw.

Nobody’s open

Williams’ receivers averaged just 2.9 yards of separation. That was the worst mark of the season for Bears pass catchers. DJ Moore averaged 2.5 yards of separation, his second-worst mark of the season. Keenan Allen averaged 2.0 yards. Rome Odunze averaged 2.9 yards. Cole Kmet averaged 3.0 yards.

League average is 2.97 yards. So the Bears’ best in that category were just about league average, while Moore and Allen were worse.

The counterpoint is all of these things work in tandem together. Less time for the quarterback in the pocket means less time for the Bears receivers to get open.

It’s the whole offense

So where do they go from here? That’s the only real question that matters. This is everybody’s fault.

Some good news on the offensive line injuries would help. Left tackle Braxton Jones did practice some last week. Getting him back would be a start, but it’s not going to fix everything.

The Bears’ offense now ranks 26th overall in expected points added, 31st in passing yards per play, 28th in EPA per pass, 28th in rushing yards per play and 24th in EPA per rush.

They’re not doing anything well.

Any hope for the playoffs?

On Oct. 28, the day after the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary touchdown, ESPN analytics gave the Bears a 27% chance of making the postseason.

After the last two losses, the Bears are down to 4%.

Two weeks ago, The Athletic’s playoff simulator gave the Bears a 30% chance of making the playoffs. Before the Hail Mary, that was as high as 43%. That number is now down to 2%.

The Athletic has the Bears favored in only one game from here on out (with a 53% chance of winning the Seahawks game Dec. 26). Per The Athletic’s model, the most likely outcome for the Bears is a 6-11 finish, with 7-10 the next most likely.

Is it too early to look at the Draft?

Tankathon currently has the Bears holding the No. 16 overall pick in the NFL Draft. That’s based on Monday’s standings. Tankathon does not project the remaining games. So if the Bears keep losing, the positioning is only going to improve.

The Bears hold the Panthers’ second-round pick in 2025. As of Monday, the Panthers are picking 41st overall, while the Bears’ own pick is 47th. If the Bears can’t turn this around, their own pick might wind up being the more valuable of the two.