Trump Faces His Own Battle of Waterloo on Election Day
Some of the cost for Donald Trump’s room and board after the November election will be borne by taxpayers. The key question is whether they'll be paying to accommodate him in the 132 rooms of the White House or the one room of a prison cell.
Last May, a New York state jury found Trump guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying records to hide information that could have influenced the 2016 presidential election. New York Judge Juan Merchan postponed sentencing until Nov. 26 “to avoid any appearance — however unwarranted — that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching Presidential election.”
Why would the judge have delayed passing down a sentence for probation or for a fine? No reason — Trump had already been found guilty. Only a sentence including imprisonment had a realistic chance of affecting the election. I’m guessing, then, that Merchan does intend to sentence Trump to a prison term. But if Trump wins, the sentence will be suspended by either Merchan or the federal courts.
Federal prosecutor Jack Smith has put together a compelling narrative of Trump’s efforts to retain the presidency even after losing the 2020 election. Among other violations of the criminal code, the indictment Smith filed on Aug. 27 argues Trump’s unofficial actions as a candidate constituted an illegal attempt to obstruct the counting of electoral votes. Should Trump win in November, he will certainly appoint an attorney general who will drop the case. If he loses, it will go to trial after Trump has run out of appeals. A prison sentence is certainly one possible outcome.
The case against Trump for theft of classified documents after leaving office was thrown out by Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee. Photos show compelling evidence of the crime, but Cannon held that prosecutor Jack Smith had been illegally appointed. She based her decision on reasoning rejected by the Supreme Court a half-century ago in U.S. v. Nixon. If Harris wins the presidency, the special prosecutor’s appeal to reinstitute the case will proceed with a high chance of success. If Trump wins the presidency, again his newly appointed attorney general will drop the case. In fact, Cannon herself may get the chance to drop the appeal. ABC News reports she is being considered as attorney general in a second Trump administration.
Trump still faces state charges for leading a conspiracy “to unlawfully change the outcome” of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Four of his codefendants have already pleaded guilty. If he should lose the presidency, Trump will be appealing procedural rulings for years before facing trial with the potential for a prison sentence. If he wins, his participation in the case would almost certainly be suspended until he completes his term of office.
Of course, Trump faces a bucketful of civil cases as well. Whether he wins the presidency or not, Trump will be dealing with appeals in two cases that awarded the writer E. Jean Carroll civil judgments for defamation and sexual abuse adding up to over $88 million before interest. However, should Trump win back the presidency, the civil suits against him by members of Congress and injured Capitol Hill police officers stemming from his behavior on Jan. 6, 2021, will almost certainly be suspended since the causes of action arose while he was in office. In contrast, a newly filed defamation suit accuses Trump of falsely claiming in his debate with Kamala Harris that the so-called Central Park Five were guilty of assault. That suit should proceed no matter the result of the election because the Supreme Court held in Clinton v. Jones (1997) that there was no temporary immunity for a president's behavior while not in office.
There’s more at stake in the upcoming election for Trump himself than potential prison sentences, court appearances and civil fines. There are billions of dollars in stock market gains or losses. Trump owns 114.75 million shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, which operates Truth Social, his social media platform. Each share was worth $12.15 on Sept. 23 and $36.41 on Oct. 23, which means the value of Trump’s holding increased by $2.7 billion. Why did the price triple? Because investors believed the odds of Trump being reelected increased over the month. If he wins, it will zoom up again. If he loses, it will crash. That could be a swing of $4 billion or more.
In 1815, the Battle of Waterloo was fought to determine whether Napoleon would reacquire the crown of Europe's most powerful country or whether he would be imprisoned on a rocky island in the middle of the Atlantic. This November, Trump’s fate will be decided not by French soldiers shooting muskets but by American voters casting ballots.
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