The impact of abortion on the November election
When I was the chief editorial writer for this newspaper in the 1980s, we did not want to touch the issue of abortion if we could help it. The issue was divisive and emotional and no matter how finely crafted our words, it was doubtful that we would change many minds.
Now, with the overturning of Roe v. Wade via the Dobbs decision by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022, the issue has been returned to the individual states and has become a volatile question in this election.
Some states had pre-Roe abortion bans on their books that automatically came back into force when the court acted. Others acted in the wake of Dobbs. Fourteen states now have total bans on abortion – some with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother and some not. Four states have six-week bans. Two have 12-week bans and two 15- to18-week bans.
One of the issues that has surfaced is that there are criminal penalties including prison for doctors who perform procedures, but some of the laws are ambiguous and ill-defined leaving doctors uncertain when they can intervene. Thus there has been a drip, drip, drip of horror stories where women’s lives have hung in the balance. Some have died.
Since Dobbs, there have been seven referendums on the abortion issue in Kansas, Vermont, Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, California, and Ohio. All have resulted in pro-choice victories. What grabbed people’s attention were the referendums in conservative “red” states.
Kansas was first, rejecting a proposed constitutional amendment that said there was no right to an abortion 59 to 41 percent. Kentucky voters rejected a similar amendment 52 to 47 percent and Ohio voters approved an amendment to protect abortion rights 57 to 43 percent. In contrast, a California referendum passed 67-33.
Over the past 30 years, opinions on abortion access have remained stable. Pew Research found 63 percent of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 36 percent say it should be illegal.
In November, abortion will be on the ballot in 10 states, including the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona.
The Democrats have a growing advantage with women voters, and the abortion issue could increase that advantage, especially among younger voters.
Vice President Harris has been the point person for the Biden administration on the issue and has been a passionate advocate for a woman’s right to choose. She demonstrated that in her debate with former President Trump.
Harris has pledged that if a bill restoring the protections of Roe were to reach her desk as president she would sign it, though it is doubtful a narrowly divided Congress could pass such a bill.
For his part, Trump has been all over the map on the issue. He has bragged that he appointed the justices who overturned Roe. He has lied about newborn babies being murdered. He said Florida’s six-week ban was too short. Backlash. Reversed course. Said he will vote against Florida’s abortion rights ballot measure.
Asked during the debate if he would sign a national abortion ban, Trump avoided the question. His vice presidential nominee JD Vance said that Trump would. Trump said Vance did not speak for him.
In the 920-page Project 2025, which Trump says he hasn’t read (though many of his former staffers wrote it), there are more stringent proposals and it advocates a total ban on abortion.
The most recent New York Times-Siena poll says 22% of women say abortion is the most important issue for them in this election and that number is 14% overall. Will that be the issue that pushes Harris over the top? TBD.
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• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86. His new book “American Dreams: The Story of the Cyprus Fulbright Commission” is available from Amazon.com.