Will Cubs’ push for 90 wins include any of their rising prospects?
This week has featured two formal requests for the Cubs to set the bar higher, from manager Craig Counsell and pitcher Jameson Taillon.
How to get there is the next question, which runs parallel to a related issue: What to do with the Cubs' six top-70 rated prospects currently parked in Triple-A?
“Spend more money” is always a popular response to the question of how to get better. The Cubs have been spending. Not always wisely, but they do rank No. 7 in Major League Baseball payroll this season.
If Cody Bellinger doesn't opt out of his $27.5 million deal for next year, there won't be much cash coming off the books. Justin Steele will get a nice raise now that he's arbitration-eligible.
So while it's OK to dream about the Cubs offering Juan Soto something along the lines of $400 million for 15 years, that's probably not happening. Those prospects do give Jed Hoyer some flexibility this winter.
Remember, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson can veto any trade, so they're likely not going anywhere. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be back in center field and hopefully leading off in 2025. Bellinger's spot on the roster is out of their hands.
Here's rundown of the top prospects at Iowa:
· Matt Shaw (ranked No. 22 overall by MLB Pipeline) has produced an impressive .931 OPS in his first 33 games in Triple-A. He's been playing third base but may be pushed to second by 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith.
Comparisons are difficult, since Nico Hoerner basically skipped Triple-A, but Shaw seems to project as a better hitter. Is Hoerner's defense more valuable? Well, those are the hot-seat decisions Hoyer gets paid to make.
· Outfielder Owen Caissie (No. 33) is the lone player on this list that spent all of 2024 in Triple A. The simplest path would be to plug him into the Mike Tauchman utility outfielder role next year.
The Cubs probably want Caissie to improve his strikeout rate. Even while posting a .945 OPS in August and September, he struck out in 30.1% of his plate appearances. Here's a really interesting number, though: Caissie is hitting .342 with two outs and runners in scoring position, according to baseball-reference.com.
· Moises Ballesteros (No. 41) is a Yogi Berra-sized catcher from Venezuela. He doesn't turn 21 until November and has been above an .800 OPS at every level since the Dominican rookie league.
Ballesteros is listed as a first baseman on his milb.com bio, but at Iowa he's made 43 starts at catcher, 19 at DH and just two at first base.
· Infielder James Triantos (No. 56) is hitting .300 with 47 stolen bases across two levels this year. He could ease into the big leagues as a utility player.
· Six-foot-6 outfielder Kevin Alcantara (No. 69) took a step up this season and has a .856 OPS in Triple-A. Another 22-year-old with upside.
· The sixth player on the list is right-handed pitcher Cade Horton (No. 28), who has been out with an injury since May 29.
One option for Hoyer this winter is to see what Hoerner, Isaac Paredes, Michael Busch and a lower rotation pitcher like Javy Assad or Jordan Wicks could bring in a trade.
Would it get them anywhere close to Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who ranks fifth in MLB in OPS this season and is one year from free agency? No one is sure if the Blue Jays would make a move, and it would be risky, since the Cubs would need to sign him.
The Cubs have spent two years chasing a balanced-offense strategy and ended up missing the playoffs. Maybe they'd be better off starting with a big bat, then decide if they want to commit to Happ, Suzuki or Bellinger long-term.
The Orioles' Anthony Santander or Mets' Pete Alonso are potential targets in free agency. Santander has 43 home runs and Alonso 34, though both are below Suzuki in OPS. But any player the Cubs add blocks one of those prospects. How do they find out if any of those young guys can become a star?
Go all out for 90 wins next season or stay patient and hope to build a lasting contender with those at least some of those prospects? Let the conflict begin.