Three Cinderellas who could bust NCAA women’s tournament brackets
Nothing says March Madness like a Cinderella run. The possibility of an underdog shocking the world draws millions of viewers to the event each year. With increased parity in the women’s game, fans should expect the unexpected now more than ever. Not including First Four games, double-digit seeds have won 14 games over the past two NCAA tournaments.
So, who will be this year’s Florida Gulf Coast or Toledo, double-digit seeds who won their first-round games a year ago? Who will wreak havoc on the brackets in your office pool? Here are three teams primed to don Cinderella’s glass slipper in this year’s tournament.
The chances of reaching the Sweet 16 are based on the results of the Her Hoop Stats prediction model and 25,000 tournament simulations. The historical chances of a given seed reaching the Sweet 16 reflect how often that seed has made it to the Sweet 16 in the history of the women’s tournament.
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No. 10 UNLV
Chance to reach the Sweet 16: 18.2%
Historical chance for a No. 10 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 4.9%
If you subscribe to the idea that experience matters, UNLV is the team for you. One of only three mid-major programs ranked in The Associated Press top 25, the veteran-laden Lady Rebels roster is poised to make some noise in this year’s tournament after falling to No. 6 seed Michigan in the first round last year and nearly knocking off No. 4 seed Arizona on the Wildcats’ home floor in 2022. Fourth-year head coach Lindy La Rocque is very familiar with the Big Dance, having also played in four Final Fours during her playing career at Stanford.
Despite its strength of schedule ranking No. 167 in the country (based on opponent average margin per 100 possessions), the three-time defending Mountain West Conference champion proved it can compete with major conference opponents, earning convincing wins over Arizona and Oklahoma.
Another reason the Lady Rebels are a compelling choice to make it past the first weekend is how adept they are at limiting opponents’ offensive opportunities. UNLV leads the country in defensive rebounding rate, pulling down nearly 80% of opponents’ misses, thanks to the impressive frontcourt duo of Alyssa Brown and two-time Mountain West player of the year Desi-Rae Young. The Lady Rebels also have the nation’s best turnover rate, committing miscues on only 12.7% of their plays. UNLV’s floor general Kiara Jackson leads the country with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.43.
An experienced 30-2 team that doesn’t beat itself is a good candidate to give first-round opponent Creighton and potential round-of-32 opponent UCLA a run for their money.
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No. 11 Green Bay
Chance to reach the Sweet 16: 12.2%
Historical chance for a No. 11 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 9.9%
The Phoenix face an uphill battle in their first-round matchup against No. 6 seed Tennessee. The Lady Vols’ 19-12 record belies just how dangerous they can be. Just ask South Carolina. Tennessee lost to the Gamecocks three times, but by an average margin of just 6.7 points, and it was a buzzer-beating three-pointer shy of handing the nation’s No. 1 team its first loss.
However, Green Bay is battle-tested. The Horizon League champion made the most of its matchups against power conference schools this season, earning a pair of wins against ranked teams during its nonconference slate against Creighton and Washington State. Led by junior guard Bailey Butler’s 5.5 assists per game, the Phoenix’s 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio tops the nation. Also, look for Horizon League first-team selection Natalie McNeal to parlay her career-high 32-point performance in the conference championship game into a strong outing against Tennessee. A potential round-of-32 game against No. 3 seed North Carolina State could await.
Green Bay hasn’t appeared in the NCAA tournament since 2018, but Coach Kevin Borseth brings a wealth of March Madness experience. In his 21st year at Green Bay across two stints, Borseth has guided the program to 13 NCAA tournament appearances, including a pair of wins.
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No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast
Chance to reach the Sweet 16: 9.1%
Historical chance for a No. 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 3.0%
Florida Gulf Coast’s roster doesn’t label its players as guards, forwards or centers. Instead, the Eagles use the moniker “shooter” to describe each player’s position, Coach Karl Smesko’s offensive philosophy of positionless basketball. It’s a philosophy that has produced seven consecutive Atlantic Sun tournament titles and first-round upset wins as the No. 12 seed in three of the past five NCAA tournaments.
The path to becoming this year’s Cinderella could be a bit more challenging for the Eagles than in years past. The Her Hoop Stats tournament simulation gives the Eagles a 9.1% chance to make the Sweet 16, compared with 26.5% last year. Also, Smesko’s current roster includes no starters from last season’s team and eight transfers.
Led by conference player of the year and defensive player of the year Emani Jefferson, the new-look Eagles have embraced Florida Gulf Coast’s signature five-out offense that eschews midrange jump shots in favor of more efficient shots at the rim and from the three-point line. In particular, 43.5% of their scoring attempts have come from beyond the arc, a three-point rate that ranks No. 2 in the country. While the Eagles haven’t been as proficient from long distance compared with years past, it’s still a strategy that has helped the Eagles generate 106.3 points per 100 possessions this season, an offensive rating in the country’s 94th percentile. Florida Gulf Coast has played at a more deliberate pace this season, ranking in the country’s bottom 30% in possessions per 40 minutes. Fewer possessions coupled with the potential for a hot night from three is a formula tailor-made for upsets.
Washington State (2023) and Virginia Tech (2022) were the latest March Madness victims of Florida Gulf Coast’s efficient offense. No. 5 seed Oklahoma and even potential round-of-32 opponent Indiana, a No. 4 seed, could be next.