Warner sends timely reminder: There are no can’t miss QB prospects
Caleb Williams fever is growing on the Bears, but with still roughly seven weeks left before the NFL Draft, it might be wise to heed the words of Kurt Warner.
The Hall of Fame quarterback took to Twitter/X to provide an explanation of why it's so difficult to project QB success in the NFL. Here's a shortened version of one of his messages:
“As I start to dive into these college QBs, it’s hard for me to even watch,” Warner wrote. “Very few play on schedule, the pass concepts are a mess most of the time, they run the same play over and over, a million bubble screens, can’t find many concepts that translate to next level. And then people are asked to figure out how good they will be at next level? Nearly impossible in my mind.”
This isn't a new concept, but Warner expressed it very well. Before getting too hyped about Williams as the next big thing in NFL quarterbacks, remember how difficult it is to predict success.
The key to being a great NFL QB is the ability to process a few dozen different factors in an 8- to 10-second span before and after the snap.
Does the play need to be changed? Blocking scheme adjusted? There are fake blitzes, disguised coverages, 300-pound behemoths giving chase and some of the world's best athletes in the secondary. A quarterback must decipher all this, make a split-second decision on where and when to throw, and needs to have around 98% accuracy or the pass will fall incomplete.
In other words, there is very little about Williams playing against the Oregon defense that translates into NFL success.
All those QB intangibles analysts love to mention — good leader, draws plays on the white board like Picasso, makes all the throws, last one to leave the field — that stuff is all well and good. Those traits are a prerequisite to being a good NFL QB. Becoming Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, though, that's all about being able to read and react rapidly.
“For me, (Houston's) C.J. Stroud is a great example,” Warner continued. “Obviously really good in college and Ohio State runs more pro-style concepts than most, but they didn’t ask him to process and get ball out as quickly as he did last year in Houston.
“So I had no idea he would be so good at processing so fast! He’s better in NFL than what we got to see in college, but many times you just don’t know until you know!”
Processing defenses quickly is just the first step. Maybe a quarterback conquers that part, but what happens when he throws a couple interceptions or gets sacked three times in the first half?
The QB still has to assess the defense quickly, but now “don't make another mistake” is stuck in his mind. Or maybe it's, “the pass rush is closing in.” Justin Fields provided examples last season of a QB not trusting the pass protection and getting jumpy in the pocket.
One trait that maybe best translates from college to NFL is being able to make plays on the move. Mitch Trubisky had the athleticism to escape the pass rush, but couldn't improvise plays to save his career when he played for the Bears. Williams made some nice off-schedule throws at USC, and his ability to change his arm angle surely has scouts thinking about Mahomes.
The No. 1 component to quarterback success, though, is probably coaching and supporting cast. Does anyone really think Mahomes would have three Super Bowl wins by now had he been drafted by the Jets? Or the Bears?
It feels like the Bears are leaning toward taking Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. And that may turn out to be the smart choice. There's still a possibility of Williams becoming the greatest QB of all time or a total bust.
The easiest path for the Bears would be to take the guy at the top of the board and not risk watching him become a star for another team.
There's another option the Bears could consider. We know the supporting cast is a concern. The Bears need help with pass blocking and receiving options. If they're also concerned with gaining financial flexibility with a rookie QB, they could trade down, load up on extra draft picks, then choose a different QB, such as Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy.
There's no way of knowing which of those four will turn into a winning NFL QB. But the one with the best supporting cast will have an advantage.
Twitter: @McGrawDHSports