Yes, extreme cold is still consistent with climate change
The planet is warming to record levels, yet here in the Chicago area we're experiencing the same brutal cold snaps we're known for.
Despite the icy temperatures, the effects of climate change are being seen worldwide, including here in Illinois. Over the last century, the state’s average daily temperatures have increased by 1-2 degrees, a 2020 study found.
The key word there is average, state climatologist Trent Ford said.
With global warming in action, scientists have witnessed an average increase in winter temperatures over the last 150 years.
“What that means is, it really just depends on our perspective,” Ford said. “When we look at the aggregate of all of the extreme cold and the milder and the kind of near normal or average temperatures in the winter — all of those things are increasing in the context of getting warmer.”
Ford added that one of the reasons Illinois can experience such different winters from year to year is we are uniquely located roughly halfway between the equator and the north pole. While warmer and more humid air comes up from the south such as from the Gulf of Mexico, cooler and drier air comes from the north including central Canada.
“That means that we get a really wide variety of weather and are under the influence of lots of different types of what we can simply call air masses,” Ford said. “That's why our climate here is, especially in this time of year, much more variable than places farther south or farther north.”
Looking ahead 50 years, Ford said Illinois will continue getting extreme, intense cold because we’re still far enough north to be under the influence of those cold air masses coming down from the Arctic.
The difference climate change makes is that those cold air outbreaks will likely be less frequent and intense than what we’ve historically experienced. They’ll also be less persistent, meaning they won’t last as long.
“The fact that this extreme cold has happened is not any sort of proof against our long-term warming trend. The two can coexist,” Ford said. “When we look in the aggregate though and think about our perspective being the long term risk of impacts from extreme cold, what we see is the frequency of those very, very cold temperatures happening is decreasing. So we are at a lesser risk of extreme cold, but that lesser risk is not zero.”
• Jenny Whidden is a climate change and environment writer working with the Daily Herald through a partnership with Report For America supported by The Nature Conservancy. To help support her work with a tax-deductible donation, see dailyherald.com/rfa.