2024 transportation predictions: Blustery skies over O’Hare redo and peering down a transit cliff

The train has left the 2023 station loaded with major stories, from a controversial CP railway merger to a transit funding crisis.

So what’s next in 2024, you ask?

In a time-honored tradition, transportation seers and professors Joseph Schwieterman of DePaul University and Ian Savage of Northwestern University will look into the future.

Our experts foresee turbulence over O’Hare International Airport’s rebuild, which would replace Terminal 2 with a massive Global Terminal.

United and American airlines are concerned the project’s $6.1 billion budget will escalate by more than $1.5 billion and those costs could be passed onto passengers. At the same time, the carriers are pledging to work with the city to modernize the airport.

The Chicago Department of Aviation said it remains committed to the development of O’Hare 21, “a once-in-a-generation investment in the airport's terminal facilities to meet the needs of all airline partners, airport employees and the traveling public in the 21st century.”

Schwieterman expects, “after much wrangling, American, United and the city of Chicago will strike a deal allowing work on the terminal project at O'Hare to proceed in earnest.”

Savage predicts a “a scaled-back and more nondescript terminal than that originally proposed by lead architect Jeanne Gang in 2019.”

Switching to trains and buses, “one transportation story will dominate the headlines in 2024 — the desperate attempts to avoid transit’s ‘fiscal cliff’ as the federal COVID-19 relief money runs out,“ Savage said.

Metra, Pace and the CTA estimate they’ll face a $730 million shortfall in two years caused by a pandemic ridership drop.

“With no sign that office workers will return to their desks five days a week in the foreseeable future, if ever, transit agencies are faced with severe service cuts or asking for increased public subsidies to make up the revenue shortfall,” said Savage, a transportation economist.

Schwieterman anticipates “a mild panic will set in next fall as the specter of large-scale transit cuts grows due to the impending fiscal cliff.”

In October, the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning finalized a report on the crisis. Its recommendations include merging Metra, Pace and the CTA and raising revenues from new taxes. Now it’s up to the General Assembly to consider.

“This will be the year when lawmakers are going to have to make some tough decisions,” Savage said. “My cynical prediction is that taxpayers are going to get hit hard in the wallet to bail out (transit) with little in the way of reform or belt-tightening by the agencies. Perhaps I will be surprised.”

Metra shifts to a four-zone ticketing system in February and that “might be the prelude to integrating services and pricing with the CTA and Pace,” he speculated.

“But I am not holding my breath,” Savage added. “I predict that deeply entrenched political fiefdoms will keep this from becoming a reality.”

Schwieterman expects Metra's new fare system will cause some confusion at first. By summer, however, riders will “appreciate its simplicity and expanded day-pass options,” he said.

What else? Here are some quick hits from Schwieterman, director of the Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development.

• “Despite its merger with JetBlue, Spirit Airlines will continue to offer rock-bottom fares while also expanding at O'Hare.”

• “American and United will struggle trying to add back flights due to shortages of airplanes and crew, preventing O'Hare from closing the gap with Atlanta, which will continue to have the most U.S. traffic.”

• “Amtrak will set new records for Midwestern passenger traffic due to America's expanding appetite for travel and new 110 mph service to St. Louis.”

• And, “Pace will see much traffic growth on its bus rapid transit services, prompting it to make plans for more express routes,” Schwieterman said.

My prediction — legislation will be introduced in Springfield ending the road test requirement for seniors renewing licenses, and spark a robust discussion.