History can help explain Cubs’ offseason caution

There's still a couple months before players start filing in for spring training, but Cubs fans seem anxious for some action.

When will the team sign a free agent? Will management ever be big-spenders?

Technically, the Cubs did sign someone, left-hander Thomas Pannone to a minor-league deal, according to reports.

MLB offseason maneuvers waited for Shohei Ohtani to sign. Now the holdup appears to be pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and no, the Cubs are not being mentioned as contenders. The Mets and Dodgers are getting most of the buzz this week.

The offseason story is incomplete, but the Cubs haven't done anything out of character. Recent team history can be used to explain where they are today. Here's the rundown:

Yu Darvish trade

We're closing in on the three-year anniversary of the deal sending the Cubs' successful starting pitcher to San Diego for a package that included one current top prospect, OF Owen Caissie.

Maybe the Cubs sold high on Darvish after he finished second in Cy Young voting. It also could have been a move designed to help hasten the 2021 rebuild.

But this always felt like a cost-saving move, especially combined with the Cubs laying off a large chunk of the front office around the same time. These days, the Ricketts family has a wide variety of revenue streams, from the Marquee Network to Winter Wonderland.

Three years removed from the Darvish trade, is ownership comfortable enough with the finances to be a top-five payroll team?

Cubs eat final year of Jason Heyward's contract

There was a time when the Cubs spent big on free agents, although Heyward's original eight-year, $184-million deal was minor league compared to what's going on now.

Most of those Cubs' deals, from Heyward to Darvish to Alfonso Soriano, didn't age well. That might be why Jed Hoyer is staying prepared to move on without Cody Bellinger, rather than meet any price.

Bryce Harper's 13-year, $330-million deal with the Phillies in 2019 seemed outrageous at the time, but he helped bring postseason success to Philadelphia. The same could be said for Corey Seager, who got 10 years, $325 million and led Texas to a World Series title in Year 2.

Astros reach ALCS for seven straight years

Hoyer has made it clear which lane he prefers. He's trying to emulate Houston's success, which has continued despite losing free agents like Carlos Correa, George Springer and Gerrit Cole.

The Astros' formula has been to sign select building blocks (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez), then bring in reinforcements from the farm system.

“I'd love nothing more than to build a young, athletic team that's built from within,” Hoyer said as his season-ending news conference.

The Cubs are still trying to line up their long-term nucleus. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are in it. Will Bellinger be the third piece? Can Seiya Suzuki carry his hot finish into 2023? Was it a mistake to commit to Ian Happ? Some questions can't be answered in the offseason.

Cubs acquire Jose Quintana

Don't discount the extent Hoyer is haunted by trading away Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez in 2017. Other young players got away in the post-World Series years, such as Jeimer Candelario and Tigers closer Alex Lange.

The Cubs have a deep farm system and could get a nice return by trading some prospects. Maybe that will happen in the coming weeks, but making the right choices with young players is a difficult process.

Here's a simple example: If the Cubs could trade Javier Assad straight up for Cleveland’s Shane Bieber, would that be a good move or bad move? Their stats were similar last season, Assad was actually a little better. Bieber hits free-agency after next season, Assad in '29. Bieber missed time in two of the last three years, but won a Cy Young in 2020.

Another question is when to turn the prospects loose. Should Assad or Jordan Wicks have a home in the 2024 rotation? Does Pete Crow-Armstrong need more time in Triple A? Will Matt Mervis get another shot with the Cubs? Will Christopher Morel ever get a permanent position?

“There's no way to be a really great organization if you're not willing to give those at-bats and those innings to young players,” Hoyer said in October. “Some are going to thrive and some won't. But if you don't allow them that opportunity, you're going to watch them thrive in other cities, which is the most painful thing.”

If the Cubs decide to move prospects, anything is possible this winter, including a mistake that haunts them for years.

Twitter: @McGrawDHSports