Hub Arkush: Breaking down the AFC and NFC title games
It's not often that the NFL's four best teams are all still playing in the last two games before the Super Bowl, but it's hard to argue that isn't what we're getting today.
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) will kick off as 2½-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers (13-4).
Game 2 of today's doubleheader will give us the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) matched up as 1½-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) for the AFC title.
If you like to bet, it's likely that all you have to do is pick the winners.
Taking the 49ers or Bengals means you're basically picking them to win. Taking them to lose but cover with such small margins feels mostly like a fool's errand.
Only two can make it to the Super Bowl. All four of these teams have very real chances, although it's hard to argue that the Eagles aren't the most talented of these four clubs.
With eight Pro Bowlers, almost the entire Philadelphia starting lineup is filled with studs. Included among those are quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Miles Sanders and wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Of their five starting offensive linemen, left guard Landon Dickerson, right tackle Lane Johnson and center Jason Kelce earned Pro Bowl nods.
It's also worth noting that while all four of these clubs are among the four best, statistically, in the league, the Eagles are the best - ranked fifth running the ball, second in rushing touchdowns, ninth passing the ball and 14th in passing touchdowns.
On defense, they are clearly the NFL's best, including second in fewest yards allowed, eighth in points allowed at just 20.2 per game, first in total sacks (with more than 4 per game) and first in fewest passing touchdowns allowed.
As loaded as the Eagles are, don't think the 49ers won't show up.
They come with six Pro Bowlers of their own, including tight end George Kittle. They're loaded on defense with linebacker Fred Warner, safety Talanoa Hufanga and one of the league's best pass rushers in Nick Bosa.
San Francisco is also one of the game's best, statistically, if not quite at the Eagles' level. The 49ers always run the ball well. This season is no exception. They're eighth in rushing and fifth in rushing touchdowns. They are also first defensively with 300.6 yards allowed per game and sport a league-best 16.3 point against per game.
The unknown for San Francisco will be how much can they expect from rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who will be starting just his eighth NFL game after taking over on Dec. 4 for injured Jimmy Garoppalo.
Purdy has been impressive so far, wracking up 13 touchdowns, and a 107.3 passer rating with just 4 interceptions in five regular season starts.
He has yet to throw an interception in the playoffs. But how ready is the final pick of the 2022 NFL draft - especially against the most talented team he's faced so far.
Purdy will be the only QB playing today who isn't going to the Pro Bowl.
The Chiefs will be hosting their fifth straight AFC championship game, two of which they won following the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Coach Andy Reid is 20-16 in the playoffs, including three Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl victory.
The Chiefs are awfully close to the Eagles in talent with seven Pro Bowlers. The big question is how healthy is quarterback Patrick Mahomes' ankle after injuring it last week against Jacksonville?
The Chiefs with Mahomes can still sling it. They rank first in the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, but they do sometimes struggle to run the ball, ranking just 20th. Defensively, they're good but not quite great.
The Bengals are a drop behind the other three clubs with just three Pro Bowlers. But they're in good shape at the most important spot with Joe Burrow at quarterback. Statistically, the Bengals are solid on defense, ranking 16th in total yards allowed but, more importantly, they're fifth in the league in points allowed with 20.1 points per game.
Offensively, Burrow has the passing game humming, ranked fifth in passing and second in passing touchdowns. Their run game, however, has struggled, averaging just 95.5 yards per game (29th). That has forced them to rely heavily on Burrow.
Anything could happen today. But there are good reasons why the Eagles and Chiefs are the favorites, albeit by slim margins.
The two things I can't get over are the youngster Purdy vs. the most loaded roster in the league, and the Bengals' inability to run the football.
It should be enough to get Philadelphia and Kansas City to the Super Bowl.