What does the future hold for the suburbs? We asked the pros

Revitalized downtowns and the creation of new areas that emulate their high-density mix of residences, businesses and entertainment likely will be among the top trends in the suburbs during the next three decades, planning experts say.

Existing examples of the latter category include the Veridian redevelopment of the former Motorola campus in Schaumburg, Bell Works Chicagoland on the former site of the AT&T campus in Hoffman Estates and Wheeling Town Center that's been built where Wickes Furniture used to be just east of the village's Metra station.

While single-family houses aren't going away, current trends point to a growing taste for more urbanized pockets of the suburbs in which home, work and play aren't as far apart as they were in the original configuration of the region just beyond Chicago.

Nevertheless, the recent COVID-19 pandemic is a prime example of how unforeseeable events can affect - or even accelerate - current forecasts of change, according to those same development professionals.

The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, for instance, is a government agency that studies and anticipates development trends in a seven-county, 284-community area in northeastern Illinois. Its work helps leaders in the region prepare for infrastructure needs.

"You don't build that infrastructure overnight," CMAP Executive Director Erin Aleman said.

CMAP's "On to 2050" plan lays out a vision for the suburbs three decades from now and recommendations on how to get there.

Bob Burk is managing partner of UrbanStreet Group LLC, which like other private development firms works to recognize and respond to market trends. The firm's work includes the repurposing of 225 acres at the sprawling former Motorola corporate campus in Schaumburg into the mixed-use Veridian development that will feature a variety of housing, workplaces and entertainment venues.

"It's something we're engaged in on a regular basis," Burk said of anticipating the future of the suburbs. "I'm not telling people they should live this way. They're telling me they want to live this way."

Both Aleman and Burk say current trends point to more dense and more walkable suburbs - whether that be through expansion of existing downtowns or the development of new spaces that create similar settings.

"I think that's a trend that's definitely going to continue," Aleman said. "People like to walk to things."

Aleman believes the COVID-19 pandemic may have been more of an accelerator of trends than a game-changer. It seemed to speed up the growing popularity of just-in-time deliveries and working remotely, which are creating a market for more local warehousing and an interest in living in a more contained environment, she said.

Some new apartment buildings are starting to be designed with coworking spaces, for example.

But one thing experienced planners recognize is that present circumstances can easily have an undue influence on predictions of the future, Aleman added. Population forecasts made during rosier times can overestimate growth, for one.

While there is a growing urban influence on new development in the suburbs, no one knowledgeable about such things is writing off the suburban single-family home or the office building.

Aleman said there are a significant number of people in industries that don't lend themselves to remote work, such as manufacturing, health care and transportation. And one of the lingering selling points of the housing stock developed after World War II is its affordability.

The region's population is aging, and there is a growing demand for new types of housing to allow people to move up and down over the arc of their lives, careers and family-raising, Aleman said.

While planners at CMAP have considered the possibility of population growth due to climate crises elsewhere, a more likely reason for any significant increase is the region's relatively enviable water supply, she added.

But the importance of CMAP's overall focus on infrastructure can't be overestimated, Burk said. Infrastructure is why he believes new development will occur through repurposing where opportunities present themselves in the suburbs - such as vacated corporate campuses - rather than endless expansion into farmlands.

While he sees a hybrid work model taking hold in some white-collar industries, he's not ready to give up on the office building - having already heard someone proclaim its demise in 2000.

Urban planning from the time of Rome has successfully banked on the notion that people like to gather, Burk said.

"There's no replacement for human contact," he added. "That desire hasn't gone anywhere."

The original configuration of the suburbs, with its segregation of uses, is still a new concept in urban planning and built to resist the evolutionary pressures it's already experiencing, Burk said.

He thinks of urbanization in terms of "The three D's." The first, distance, is how far a person is willing to travel on a regular basis. The shorter that is, the bigger the second D - density - becomes. And density automatically builds the third D, diversity of uses.

Unpredictable variables must also be taken into account.

"Market influences being No. 1," Burk said. "We are susceptible to market forces that are out of our control."

Also, because the economy has become so much more globalized, it's become vulnerable to events happening elsewhere in the world, he added. Current supply-chain issues are an example of that.

"I think the future has become harder to predict because the past is not a reliable road map," Burk said. "But you have to use the past as a guide because it's foolish not to. You have to have a reference point."