Brazil on edge for a bicentennial Bolsonaro has made his own

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) - President Jair Bolsonaro called Brazil's bicentennial Wednesday a chance to celebrate the nation's history, but critics say he has transformed what should be a day of unity into a campaign event and fear he will use it to undermine next month's election in Latin America's biggest democracy.

Bolsonaro, who trails in polls before the Oct. 2 vote, has urged Brazilians to flood the streets, and tens of thousands of his supporters turned out for a rally in Brasilia, with similar crowds expected for a show of strength in Rio de Janeiro. The armed forces were putting on military displays in the cities, with Bolsonaro attending.

The far-right nationalist has for years made a mission of encouraging Brazilian patriotism, and coopted the national colors of green and yellow as his own. He stacked his administration with military officers and repeatedly sought their support, most recently to cast doubt on the reliability of the nation's electronic voting system.

His attacks on the voting system has prompted widespread concern among his opponents that he may follow former U.S. President Donald Trump's footsteps in rejecting election results.

'œBolsonaro and his supporters have built this up into the most important day of the whole campaign. So he'll have to deliver some kind of red meat," said Brian Winter, vice president for policy at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. 'œBut everyone wants to know if he'll cross that line and create a genuine institutional crisis.'ť

Bolsonaro arrived to the day's first event, the military display in Brasilia, accompanied by at least one of the business executives who allegedly participated in a private chat group that included comments favoring a possible coup and military involvement in politics, and who is being investigated by Federal Police for possibly financing anti-democratic acts.

The crowd, decked out in green and yellow, chanted against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the poll frontrunner who is seeking to return to the post he held in 2003-2010. Speaking at a rally immediately afterward, Bolsonaro making no reference to Brazil's struggle for independence and instead focused on his achievments while slamming da Silva's Workers' Party.

A few thousand demonstrators also gathered on Sao Paulo's main downtown boulevard. Due to a downpour and the fact Bolsonaro wasn't scheduled to appear, turnout was a fraction of last year's.

Later, Bolsonaro was tol attend another military display in Rio along Copacabana beach - where his supporters often hold demonstrations. It will entail rifle salutes, cannon fire, flyovers, paratroopers and warships anchored offshore.

That display - and a public celebration - had been moved from downtown, where independence day parades are usually held. The president initially announced there would be a parade this year, too, but Rio's mayor and military leaders settled on the more modest display at the beach site designated by the president.

Bolsonaro, a former army captain and lawmaker for decades before winning the 2018 presidential election, has spent most of his first term locking horns with Supreme Court justices, some of whom are also top members of the electoral authority.

He has accused some judges of hamstringing his administration and favoring da Silva. That has effectively turned those figures and their institutions into enemies for Bolsonaro's base, which represents roughly one-quarter of the electorate.

When Bolsonaro launched his reelection bid July 24, he asked supporters for 'œone last'ť show of support on Independence Day. 'œThose few deaf people in black robes have to understand what the voice of the people is,'ť he said, referring to the justices.

Since his campaign began, Bolsonaro has softened his tone. In the southern city of Curitiba last week, he told supporters to lower a banner demanding a military coup. And in a TV spot released Tuesday, he urged people to turn out for the bicentennial 'œwith peace and harmony.'ť

Carlos Ranulfo de Melo, a political scientist at Federal University of Minas Gerais, said this likely reflects campaign strategy to avoid fiery rhetoric and instead focus on the improving economy.

'œWe will convince those who think differently from us, we will convince them of what is best for Brazil,'ť Bolsonaro told the crowd in Brasilia. He refrained from attacks on the electronic voting system and the Supreme Court.

But Rodrigo Prando, a political science professor at Mackenzie Presbyterian University in Sao Paulo, said he expected Bolsonaro to turn up the temperature during the day.

The president is known for off-the-cuff outbursts. At last year's Independence Day rally, he pushed the country to the brink of an institutional crisis by proclaiming he would ignore rulings from a Supreme Court justice. He later backtracked, saying his comments came in the heat of the moment, and the boiling tension was reduced to a simmer.

There have been concerns about political violence. Some die-hard supporters attempted to storm the Supreme Court last year. In July, a federal prison guard killed a local official from the Workers' Party as he celebrated his birthday, and witnesses said he shouted support for Bolsonaro before pulling the trigger.

The newspaper Estadao de S. Paulo, among others, reported Aug. 19 that military intelligence had identified risks of radical, pro-Bolsonaro movements provoking turmoil at bicentennial celebrations and calling for military intervention. That was reportedly a key reason the armed forces declined to parade along Copacabana.

'œThere's a movement that tries to legitimize a coup if the result from the ballots doesn't please the Bolsonaristas,'ť said Tai Nalon, co-founder of fact-checking agency AosFatos. 'œYou didn't have that in 2018.'ť

Members of Bolsonaro's campaign hope he stays on message. Congressman João Augusto Rosa, deputy chairman of Bolsonaro's Liberal Party, told The Associated Press he wants the president reach out to undecided voters, especially poorer Brazilians who have received increased welfare payments.

'œWe have to show all the benefits we were able to conquer for them," the congressman, better known as Capitão Augusto, said by phone. "It isn't the time to preach to those who have already converted, but instead to those who could still change their minds.'ť

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Jeantet reported from Rio de Janeiro. Associated Press writer Mauricio Savarese in Sao Paulo contributed to this report.